Gold’s Historic Run Dwarfs BTC But a Positive Catalyst May be Waiting: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As gold pushed through the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time, bitcoin BTC$122,932.13 lost 1.25% of its value and the wider crypto market, as measured by the coinDesk 20 (CD20) index, dropped 3%.

The drop came amid profit-taking after the crypto market rose more than 7.7% in less than a week and as whales’ paper gains swelled. The divergence also comes as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rises to its highest level in two months.

Gold, long viewed as a safe haven, has rallied over 50% this year. Inflows into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accelerated, with holdings now at their highest levels since late 2022, according to ING.

Investors are seeking cover from rising political risk, including a new leadership crisis in France and growing tensions in Japan’s fiscal policy direction. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its second week, has delayed key economic data and added to concerns about its fiscal outlook.

Bitcoin, while often considered as a hedge against uncertainty, has been hit by the rising U.S. dollar and short-term whales moving their BTC to exchanges, which suggests they’ve moved to lock in profit.

Adding to bitcoin’s headwinds is the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields, which jumped to a 17-year high this week. The 10-year yield touched 1.70%, pricing in the fiscal risks of incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Abenomics-inspired spending agenda.

Per Goldman Sachs, pressure from Japanese bold yields could spill over into global bonds. Higher bond yields tend to tighten financial conditions globally and reduce investor appetite for riskier assets like BTC.

Still, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains. U.S.-listed spot ETFs added over $3 billion in inflows last week, pushing total net inflows past $60 billion. This week, an additional $2 billion have been brought in, per SoSoValue.

Other developments include S&P Global unveiled the Digital Markets 50 Index benchmark which tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-linked equities, while the Intercontinental Exchange invested a $2 billion investment in crypto-native predictions market Polymarket.

“In the near term, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook remains positive, supported by monetary easing expectations, consistent ETF inflows, and persistent safe-haven demand,” Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, said in an emailed statement. “Should the Fed deliver clearer signals about the start of a rate-cut cycle in upcoming meetings, Bitcoin is likely to continue benefiting, with room to extend higher into new price territories in the fourth quarter.”

The next test could come from the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in rate cuts, and if the Fed confirms a shift toward easing, both gold and bitcoin could see renewed momentum.

Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Oct. 8, 9:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr speech at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis. Watch live.
  • Oct. 8, 2 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 FOMC meeting.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • ZKSync DAO is voting on a proposal to allocate 25 million ZK tokens (~$1.25M) for the “Prividium Roadshow” through the end of 2026. Voting ends Oct. 8.
  • GMX is holding elections for Season 3 of its Listing Committee, which will select three members to oversee and approve new asset listings on GMX protocols.Voting ends Oct. 8.
  • Jito DAO is voting on a proposal to expand the validator set from 200 to 400 and update StakeNet’s ranking and eligibility criteria to address negative stake pool dynamics Voting ends Oct. 8.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • Oct. 8: Sky (SKY) to be listed on BitFlyer.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• BNB Chain activity is continuing to dominate the altcoin sector this week; spurring a 10% daily gain for CAKE$4.3477 and a 3% rise for BNB despite the wider market cooling off.
• Spot trading volume on PancakeSwap hit $19 billion over the past 24 hours as traders attempt to capitalize on the latest wave of hype; Chinese-language memecoins that, in some cases, have already exploded to valuations upwards of $350 million.
• The momentum shift to BNB Chain away from the likes of Solana began following the emergence of Aster, a decentralized perpetual exchange that has regularly topped $100 billion in daily volume despite claims over trading flow disparities.
• Total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain has increased from $6.5 billion to $9 billion since June, although it remains well below its record high of $26.3 billion set in 2021, suggesting the ecosystem has more room to grow.
• Much of the network’s growth will also depend on the direction of the wider crypto market; BTC and ETH both gave back gains on Wednesday as the market begins to consolidate following another failed breakout.
• A move to the downside would likely weigh on BNB Chain as crypto traders often minimize risk by rotating to stablecoins, reducing the demand for speculative memeco

Derivatives Positioning

• Most major tokens have experienced a drop in futures open interest (OI) over the past 24 hours, with AVAX being a notable exception, posting a 2% rise in OI.
• This widespread decline suggests that recent price actions are largely due to profit-taking rather than an increase in bearish positions.
• Perpetual funding rates remain steady at or below an annualized 10%, reflecting a mild bullish sentiment in the market.
• On the CME, ether futures open interest has decreased to 2.16 million ETH from Monday’s peak of 2.34 million. Despite this retreat, overall positioning remains relatively high, especially when compared to bitcoin’s open interest, which is still well below its December 2024 high.
• Both BTC and ETH futures premiums on the CME continue to trade under 10%.
• On Deribit, the bitcoin options market shows a slightly negative skew across all tenors, indicating puts are somewhat more expensive relative to calls. Block trades predominantly feature bull call spreads in bitcoin and outright purchases of out-of-the-money ether calls.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.45% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $122,564.51 (24hrs: -1.36%)
• ETH is down 0.62% at $4,484.06 (24hrs: -4.42%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.22% at 4,228.30 (24hrs: -3.15%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.89%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0091% (9.9645% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.38% at 98.95
• Gold futures are up 1.43% at $4,061.80
• Silver futures are up 2.51% at $48.71
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.45% at 47,734.99
• Hang Seng closed down 0.48% at 26,829.46
• FTSE is up 0.54% at 9,535.15
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39% at 5,635.69
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.2cesr% at 46,602.98
• S&P 500 closed down 0.38% at 6,714.59
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.67% at 22,788.36
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.59% at 30,351.72
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.3% at 2,839.90
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.111%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% at 6,771.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.21% at 25,091.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.16% at 46,925.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.11% (0.19%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03658 (-0.22%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,011 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $51.52
• Total Fees: 4.04 BTC / $498,734
• CME Futures Open Interest: 145,005 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 30.5 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.62%

Technical Analysis

• The above chart shows the monthly performance of CAKE, the native utility and governance token for PancakeSwap, in candlestick format.
• While CAKE has surged over 70% this month, prices remain locked in a three-year-long consolidation channel.
• Prolonged periods of range play often resolve with a violent move in either direction. Watch out for a bullish breakout, as that could lead to a sharp rally.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $375.78 (-2.67%), +0.62% at $378.10 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $148.72 (+0.14%), +1.14% at $150.41
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.58 (+1.91%), +3.61% at $41.01
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $65.1 (-5.36%), +1.01% at $65.76
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.25 (-1.56%), +0.69% at $20.39
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.47 (-0.42%), +1.30% at $21.75
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.1 (-4.52%), +0.88% at $17.25
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.96 (+3.04%), +3.17% at $18.53
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $53.38 (+2.08%), +1.12% at $53.98
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.71 (-6.28%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $328.4 (-8.7%), +1.98% at $334.89
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.36 (-7.77%), +1.09% at $28.67
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.77 (-7.64%), +0.62% at $17.88
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.05 (-8.44%), +0.85% at $7.11
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.45 (-5.77%), +2.45% at $

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $875.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $62.09 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $420.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $15.03 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 6.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

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