Smart money is hedging bitcoin more aggressively than ether :Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the new quarter gets underway, the crypto market is sending a subtle but important signal: traders seem a bit more cautious about bitcoin BTC$66,506.39 than ether (ETH).

You can see this in the options market, where more experienced traders and institutions go to hedge risk or generate extra returns. Think of options as a kind of insurance. Traders can buy protection against price drops (puts) or bet on price increases (calls), depending on their outlook.

Right now, one key metric, called a risk reversal, is negative for both bitcoin and ether across different time frames. In simple terms, that means puts, or downside protection, is more expensive than bullish bets. When traders are willing to pay more for put options, it usually signals lingering fears of a price drop. That’s perfectly normal, considering the brutal downtrend in bitcoin and ether since October.

But here’s where it gets interesting: that caution is stronger for bitcoin. Put options on bitcoin are more expensive than those on ether across all time frames, suggesting traders are more worried about BTC’s downside risk.

The difference becomes even clearer when zooming further out. Longer-dated ether options, such as those expiring next March, are only slightly bearish, while bitcoin’s equivalent options carry a much steeper premium for downside protection.

In short, the market is betting that ether will be relatively resilient. That would signal a bullish trend change in the ether-to-bitcoin ratio, which has been in a downtrend since August (see the technical analysis section).

Ether has risen 5% over the past 24 hours, outpacing bitcoin BTC$66,506.39, XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and the CoinDesk 20 Index. Several smaller tokens associated with quantum-computing-resistant technology have rallied by 20% or more.

Analysts said a firm breakout in BTC above its 50-day moving average of $68,680 will likely strengthen the bullish momentum.

In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for the fourth straight day while futures tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose nearly 0.5%. Together, these things point to risk-on sentiment ahead. Stay alert

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • April 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for March (Prev. 63K)
  • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 52.4)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • April 1: HTX to host a live X Spaces session with World Mobile.
  • April 1: KuCoin to host a live X Spaces session with Katana.
• Unlocks
  • April 1: SUI$0.8542 to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period after the token generation event.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.61% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $68,622.64 (24hrs: +3.34%)
• ETH is up 1.47% at $2,136.90(24hrs: +5.27%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.62% at 1,968.28 (24hrs: +3.62%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.76%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0033% (3.5193% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.37% at 99.59
• Gold futures are up 1.5% at $4,748.80
• Silver futures are down 0.69% at $74.40
• Nikkei 225 closed up 5.24% at 53,739.68
• Hang Seng closed up 2.04% at 25,294.03
• FTSE is up 1.63% at 10,342.45
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.75% at 5,667.09
• DJIA closed on Tuesday up 2.49% at 46,341.51
• S&P 500 closed up 2.91% at 6,528.52
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 3.83% at 21,590.63
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.61% at 32,768.04
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3.2 bps at 4.279%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 6,592.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 24,030.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.36% at 46,750.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.72% (-0.04%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03111 (0.89%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,004 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.37
• Total fees: 2.47 BTC / $166,441
• CME Futures Open Interest: 104,900 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.58%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in the ether-bitcoin ratio in the candlestick format.
• The ratio has been trending lower since August, showcasing ether underperformance relative to bitcoin. This downtrend is represented by the yellow line that connects the steady decline over seven months.
• The outlook would flip bullish if the ratio rises past this trendline. Such a move would confirm renewed investor preference for ether, as suggested by the options market.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $174.61 (+8.60%), +1.80% at $177.75 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $95.41 (+6.12%), +2.69% at $97.98
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.45 (+7.58%), +1.94% at $18.81
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.73 (+7.39%), +0.95% at $36.07
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.16 (+4.62%), +1.35% at $8.27
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.36 (+4.48%), +2.35% at $12.65
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.96 (+7.55%), -0.40% at $14.90
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.51 (+4.03%), +2.12% at $8.69
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $34.82 (+7.70%), +1.81% at $35.45
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.50 (+4.84%), -0.92% at $6.44

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $124.80 (+2.77%), +1.48% at $126.65
• Strive (ASST): closed at $10.02 (+6.94%), +1.90% at $10.21
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.45 (+7.32%), +2.02% at $6.58
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.99 (+3.90%), +6.49% at $1.05
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.16 (+11.54%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $117.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.09 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $31.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.59 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 5.70 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Trump says Iran war could end in ‘two weeks’, with or without deal (euronews): Trump, who will address the nation Wednesday night, said the war in Iran could end in two to three weeks. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said its war on Tehran will continue.

Iran fires missiles across Middle East as Trump signals exit (Bloomberg): Iran fired missiles across the Middle East while Israel and the U.S. kept up their bombardment of the Islamic Republic, even as Trump fueled market optimism by signaling he’s preparing to end the war.

UAE wants to force Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight (The Wall Street Journal): The UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to join the war.

Crypto asset manager CoinShares to list on Nasdaq after $1.2 billion SPAC deal (CoinDesk): CoinShares, a leading European digital asset manager with over $6 billion under management, is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol CSHR.