Prediction Markets Still Expect Big MSTR Buys Even as Saylor Prepares for a Weak Market

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A new CryptoQuant report suggests that Strategy is quietly preparing for a multi-month BTC downturn.

This thesis is colliding with prediction markets bets that still believe the company will behave as if it were 2021.

CryptoQuant highlights in its most recent weekly report that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company is undergoing a structural pivot from aggressive BTC accumulation to balance-sheet protection, highlighted by a separate USD reserve and language acknowledging the option to hedge or even sell in stressed conditions.

Despite that shift, Polymarket odds for a bitcoin sale remain marginal for the first quarter of the year, while expectations for routine small buys stay elevated.

Additionally, Polymarket traders still see routine MSTR purchases as a high-probability event, even as the scale of those buys shrinks.

The market assigns only a 40%–45% chance of a buy above 1,000 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report suggests these cosmetic top-ups are becoming the norm. With monthly accumulation down more than 90% from last year, traders expect small buys that preserve branding without affecting supply or regional liquidity.

Strategy’s average purchase size has fallen from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows at their weakest since mid-June, bitcoin treasury firms are no longer absorbing meaningful supply in the current market.

Taken together, slower treasury buying, weaker DAT inflows, and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply landscape ahead for crypto in 2026.

Whether BTC can resume its upward trend will hinge on new sources of demand stepping in to replace the corporate accumulation that defined the last cycle.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin recovered from its morning drop to $91,800 and steadied near $93,000, but its two-day 10% rally is stalling below resistance at the 2025 yearly open around $93,400.

ETH: Ether climbed back above $3,100 and reached a two-week high near $3,200 after a 3.5% gain on the day.

Gold: Gold slipped slightly to just above $4,200 as traders stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, although renewed Ukraine tensions and a softer dollar outlook could set the stage for a rebound.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed Thursday, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix rose about 1.3% after upbeat U.S. jobs data lifted Wall Street and strengthened hopes for a Fed rate cut next week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• Bitcoin Miners Hunted After Stealing $1 Billion of Electricity From Malaysia Grid (Bloomberg)
• U.S. Debt Growth Will Drive Crypto’s Gains, BlackRock Says in Report on AI (CoinDesk)