Myriad Moves: Bitcoin Odds Flip Bearish as Traders Expect Longest US Gov Shutdown in History

Uncertainty in the crypto market has led to a tighter price range for top crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum over the last week. 

But odds on prediction markets have been much more volatile, as predictors slide from bullish to bearish alongside the broader market. 

Top-moving markets this week include predictions on Bitcoin’s next stop, the battle between BNB and XRP, and the growth of the stablecoin market cap.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)

Bitcoin’s next move: $120K or $100K?

Market Open: October 12
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $766K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Bitcoin’s next hit: $120K or dip to $100K” market on Myriad

Bitcoin is stuck in a range, offering brief spurts up followed by slides back down. BTC was recently trading at $107,659, falling around 3.5% in the last 24 hours and now down 2% on the week. 

That’s led predictors on Myriad to once more turn bearish, bringing odds of Bitcoin’s next stop being $120,000 down to 43% at the time of writing. Earlier this week though, the bullish side had once more climbed to around 75% in favor of $120,000. 

Bitcoin and the broader market tumbled on the back of uncertainty from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding a December rate cut. 

The top crypto asset by market cap now sits around 12% from the $120,000 mark and nearly 15% from its August all-time high, according to data from CoinGecko. While it’s been able to hold firm above $100,000 since the largest crypto liquidation of all time wiped out $19 billion worth of positions earlier this month (across all coins), its current range risks further contracts according to a recent Glassnode report. 

Yet, some analysts see near-term catalysts, particularly as the shine has worn off gold a bit in the last week, opening room for Bitcoin to grow as the debasement trade stays on. 

What’s Next? A trade deal with China may be resolved soon, but uncertainty about a December rate cut still stands, potentially putting a tamper on severe moves in either direction.

Will this be the longest government shutdown in U.S. history?

Market Open: October 15
Market Close: November 5
Volume: $28.9K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will this be the longest government shutdown in US history?” market on Myriad

The U.S. government shut down has reached 30 days, making it the second-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

Predictors on Myriad now overwhelmingly believe this one will surpass the 35-day shutdown from President Donald Trump’s first term, now giving 83% odds of “yes” in the Myriad market which asks if it will be the longest.

The market has been trending that way in the last 10 days, jumping from the mark of 47.5% in favor of “yes” on October 20.

A resolution could come down to the wire as Senators did not find a resolution on Thursday, and are now not slated to reconvene until Monday afternoon, according to a report from CBS News.  

When they come back together, they’ll have just a couple of days to find a compromise and end the shutdown before it becomes the longest of all time.

President Trump is back in the United States after his travels to Asia—can he help push things along in the coming days? Predictors don’t think so.

What’s Next? The Senate is adjourned until 3pm ET on Monday.

BNB vs. XRP: Which will rank higher on November 2?

Market Open: October 28
Market Close: November 1
Volume: $43.8K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Which will rank higher on November 2?”  market on Myriad

Leading altcoins BNB and XRP both hit new all-time highs in 2025, nestling themselves inside the top 5 of crypto assets by market cap in the process. 

Now, a new Myriad market on BNB Chain asks users which of the two market caps will rank higher on November 2. 

As it stands on Thursday afternoon, their market caps are separated by less than $2 billion, or about a 1% move for each token, both of which trade just shy of $150 billion market caps at the time of writing. 

The pair are both trending down in the last 24 hours, but BNB has remained stronger, dropping only 3.9% while the Ripple-linked XRP has dropped 7.8%. 

That has led to a quick flip in the Myriad market, more than doubling odds of BNB’s market cap being higher on November 2 in the last 24 hours. As it stands, predictors now give BNB a 57% chance of holding the crown, compared to 23.2% on Wednesday evening. 

The broader crypto market has tumbled after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut is “not a forgone conclusion,” adding a layer of uncertainty to market sentiment and putting a further damper on expected “Uptober” vibes as the month winds down.

If the market continues to tumble, will the XRP Army be strong enough to mount a comeback? 

What’s Next? Predictions for this market close on November 1. 

Stablecoin market cap to pass $360 billion before February?

Market Open: October 2
Market Close: January 29 
Volume: $15.8K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Stablecoin market cap above $360 billion by February” market on Myriad

Stablecoins have been one of the leading storylines this year, highlighted by the passing of the GENIUS Act, which regulates their issuance and trading in the United States. 

The focus on fiat-pegged currencies has helped propel growth of more than $100 billion in total market cap since the year began, from around $205 billion on January 1 to $307 billion as of Thursday, according to data from DefiLlama.

Predictors on Myriad are now asked to predict whether or not the total market cap can pass $360 billion by February.

Earlier this month, predictors were quite confident, making odds of “yes” around 80% on October 10. But with slowing stablecoin growth in the last few weeks, odds have shrunk, now sitting at just 53% to surpass $360 billion before February.

The entire stablecoin market cap has dropped slightly in the last week, dipping around 0.15% or $478 million—led by outflows in the third largest stablecoin by market cap, Ethena’s USDe.

But longer-term predictions see major growth in the sector. Earlier this month, analysts at Standard Chartered indicated that stablecoins could pull around $1 trillion from bank deposits in emerging markets in the coming years.

Plus, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said back in June that a $2 trillion market cap is reasonable for the asset class.

The total market cap will need to jump around 17% in the next three months to reach the $360 billion mark before February. That would just barely outpace the last three months’ worth of growth, with the total market cap rising around 15.8% from the end of July until today.

Predictors are split on whether that will happen.

What’s Next? Predictions will close on January 29, a couple of days before February begins.