Myriad Moves: Bitcoin Is Falling—Will It Dump to $69K or Rebound to $100K?

Another week of market chop and underwhelming crypto performances has crypto bears becoming a louder voice on Myriad. 

Below, we’ll look at some of this week’s top prediction markets on the prediction market,  including those centered on the next stops for Bitcoin and Solana, and the rising approval rating for President Trump, which defies traditional polling. 

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)

Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or dump to $69K?

Market Open: November 21
Market Close: Open until resolution 
Volume: $138K
Link: See the latest odds on the “BTC’s Next Move: Pump to $100K or Dump to $69K?” market on Myriad

Long touted as “digital gold,” Bitcoin continues to range while its physical counterpart surges to all-time highs. 

That has predictors on Myriad conflicted about its next stop, with odds moving closer over the last week to a “dump” to $69,000. BTC has dropped nearly 5% in the last seven days of trading, recently changing hands at $84,167 and hitting a two-month low earlier Thursday. Odds of a “pump” fell around 20% as predictors now give the chances of hitting $100K first just 55% odds. 

As recently as two weeks ago, those odds stood as high as 88% while BTC had rallied above $97,000. 

Michael Saylor and Strategy continue to slam the buy button, but there’s been no relief to the price, which actually faded strongly from a recent Saylor’s purchase—his firm’s fifth-largest ever in terms of BTC denomination.

The Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday, which didn’t help propel BTC either. The leading crypto asset held firm for a while, before ultimately falling below $85,000 on Thursday morning. 

BTC now stands 33% off its all-time high and is just 18% above the “dump” mark of $69,000 as bears have taken control of the market. 

What’s Next? January provided no Fed rate cut relief, but another FOMC meeting will take place on March 17. 

Solana’s next move: Pump to $150 or dump to $100?

Market Open: November 21
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $497K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Solana’s Next Move: Pump to $150 or Dump to $100?” market on Myriad

Last January, Solana was the darling of the crypto market. The token surged to a new all-time high, the President dropped a meme coin on the speedy layer-1 network, and trading activity was a total frenzy. 

A year later, though, things stand much differently. SOL was recently changing hands at just $118—nearly 60% off its all-time high mark, and slightly off the mid-point of Myriad’s “pump or dump” market, which asks predictors whether the asset is next headed to $150 or $100. 

Two weeks ago, predictors gave $150 about a 91% chance of being the next stop. But as of Thursday morning, predictors have completely flipped the script, now giving a drop to $100 57% odds—a 41% shift. 

That’s despite the fact that Solana ETFs have been resilient in the face of falling prices, adding $6.7 million in net inflows on Wednesday—the best daily mark in about two weeks.

SOL is now down 48% in the last year of trading, and hasn’t changed hands above $150 since November. Predictors don’t think it’ll do so anytime soon either. 

What’s Next? With ETFs approved, near-term catalysts for Solana may be more macroeconomic in nature, with eyes shifting to the next FOMC meeting in March.

President Trump’s approval rating: Approve or disapprove?

Market Open: October 7
Market Close: No resolution
Volume: $647K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Trump’s approval rating?” market on Myriad

President Trump’s polarizing personality leads to strong opinions from both sides of the aisle—those who approve of his words and actions, and those who don’t.

Predictors hoping to profit on his approval rating can make use of Myriad’s perpetual sentiment market, which never resolves, but rather slides up and down based on the opinions of the market. 

That market has been moving up lately, sliding positively 3% in the last week with Myriad predictors approving Trump’s performance at a rate of 55%. 

Those odds are heavily contrasted to typical approval ratings of the President, which stand around 55% disapproval—as seen in polling aggregated by Nate Silver and the New York Times. 

There’s no clear-cut rationale for the difference between the two. Though crypto participants may seem more likely to approve of the president given his crypto-friendly policies and actions, some Bitcoiners and cypherpunks have started to sour on America’s Commander in Chief following another fatal shooting in Minneapolis—and the response from the White House.

Furthermore, while Trump’s policies have helped entrench the industry alongside traditional finance, his family’s crypto actions have also drawn intense scrutiny from political opponents and other critics.

Myriad’s approval market more closely matched that of traditional polling until earlier this month, but with falling crypto prices, there’s little to suggest why predictors on Myriad have begun diverging so heavily. 

What’s Next? This market has no resolution, but Trump seems to consistently say or do something that riles up either supporters or opponents—and sometimes both.