Myriad Moves: Bitcoin and Ethereum Recovery Odds Rise as Traders Flip Bullish

Bitcoin and Ethereum have posted small weekly gains, reclaiming the key levels of $90,000 and $3,000, respectively. 

Those moves were enough for predictors to flip bullish on their next stops, even if new all-time highs increasingly appear out of the question before the end of the year—though perpetual bulls might still disagree.

Below, we’ll look at some of this week’s top markets on Myriad, including whether BTC and ETH will pump or dump next, and whether or not a major liquidation event is coming. 

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)

Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or dump to $69K?

Market Open: November 21
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $34.5K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or dump to $69K?” market on Myriad

It only took a slight weekly rebound to make Myriad predictors bullish again. 

BTC has jumped around 1.1% in the last 7 days and 6.9% over the last 2 weeks as it reclaimed $92,000—now changing hands slightly above that mark at $92,522. 

That jump, now more than 10% off the late November lows, has shifted odds to 75% in favor of Bitcoin reclaiming $100K before it dumps to $69K. 

That’s a 27% increase from Monday afternoon, when users actually favored the top crypto asset to dump to $69,000. 

Despite its recent bump, Bitcoin is still down 8% over the last month, sliding further from its all-time high and popular year-end price predictions of $150,000. 

But a December rate cut is now a near lock, according to analysts, providing a near-term catalyst that predictors think will give BTC enough juice to reclaim $100K. 

Savvy Bitcoin bulls can gain around 25% on their predictions on Myriad if they think $100,000 is in store—while holding spot BTC from here will only yield around 8% on the move. 

What’s Next? December’s FOMC meeting will take place next week on December 9 and 10.

Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?

Market Open: November 5
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $143K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?”   market on Myriad

Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin over the last week, gaining 3.6% while Bitcoin only rose by 1%.

The move has also flipped Myriad’s “Ethereum’s next move” market, with predictors now slightly bullish on a move up for ETH rather than a fall back down to $2,500. 

The expected upward move prediction comes despite bearish technical analysis for ETH, which now changes hands at $3,140—about 27% from the upper bound of this market. 

Predictors are holding at 50.8% in favor of a pump, nearly doubling the odds of the move to $4K from Monday morning when they stood at just 26.7%. 

Recent headlines may provide some near-term tailwinds for the second-largest crypto asset. 

The network just completed its Fusaka upgrade, improving speed and scalability of the layer-1and its layer-2 economy. Plus, ETH whales are stepping in to help jolt the price, with one wallet in particular adding around $55 million on Tuesday. 

That’s on top of BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury, continuing its weekly buys, acquiring more than $265 million last week in its pursuit of holding 5% of the circulating ETH supply.

Are the looming rate cuts already priced in? Or does the weekly boost have more legs? 

What’s Next? ETH too may be subject to a boost for risk assets if rates are indeed cut next week. 

Will there be a $2 billion crypto liquidation day by the end of December?

Market Open: December 3
Market Close: December 29 
Volume: $589
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will there be a $2 billion crypto liquidation day?” market on Myriad

A record-breaking cascade of liquidations befell the crypto market on October 10, wrecking more than $19 billion in positions across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and more. 

Now, a new market on Myriad asks predictors whether or not a $2 billion liquidation day will rock markets before the end of the year. 

As of Thursday afternoon, predictors think it’s unlikely to happen, giving “no” around 69% chances on minimal trading volumes in the new market. 

That means a “no” trader stands to gain around 31% if no massive liquidation comes. But how frequently does it happen? 

A liquidation event of that size would mark one of the 15 largest liquidation events in crypto history, according to data gathered from CoinGlass. To date, only 14 days have resulted in liquidations surpassing the $2 billion mark—12 of which took place in 2021. 

Liquidations can happen to bets on both sides. In other words, traders make bets that the price of an asset will go up or down, and could both add to the tally on a single day.

For example, around 53% of today’s $346 million in liquidations are on long positions, or those that are betting on the price to go up, according to data from CoinGlass. 

Two of the 10 largest liquidation events of all-time have taken place this year, including the record-breaking October 10 liquidation event. 

Is a third in store before the end of the year? 

What’s Next? Mass liquidations typically come amid major price volatility up or down.