Morning Minute: JPMorgan Says No Crypto Winter

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors pump then fall pre-FOMC, ETH leads +6%; BTC at $92,000
• PNC Bank enables Bitcoin spot trading for Private Bank clients
• Senator Cory Booker warns Crypto Market Structure bill won’t pass without more Dem representation
• Meteora shares updates to its DLMM, teases ‘New Meteora’ for 2026
• Huge day for ICOs after HumidiFi’s WET soars 6x, Rainbow announces $100M ICO, Octra at $200M and Fogo doing ICO for 2% of its supply

📝 JPMorgan Says There Is No New Crypto Winter

Bitcoin has been sliding, sentiment has been deep in Fear mode, and Crypto Twitter has been panicking.

But one major bank isn’t concerned.

📌 What Happened

JPMorgan analysts published new guidance pushing back against the idea that the latest drawdown marks a return to crypto winter.

In fact, the bank says this is just a “meaningful correction,” not the start of a new bear market.

They pointed to several short-term drivers behind the recent sell-off:

• ETF outflows tied to basis-trade unwinds
• Liquidations hitting overly leveraged longs
• Seasonal illiquidity heading into year-end
• Soft macro ahead of today’s Fed decision

The bank stressed that none of these dynamics signal a structural breakdown in crypto demand.

And importantly, they noted that institutional interest, real-world adoption, and tokenization efforts remain intact.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

“The sell-off this past month triggered worries throughout crypto media and markets that the crypto ecosystem may be entering the next crypto winter. While we don’t anticipate the end of the current bull cycle, we do acknowledge this November pullback as meaningful.”

“Overall, we struggle to see these recent market pullbacks as emblematic of broader structural degradation within the crypto ecosystem, and thus we continue to be positive on the space.” – JPMorgan analysts

“This time really is different. We think crypto winters are a thing of the past.” – Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets

🧠 Why It Matters

JPMorgan’s overall message is pretty simple: prices may have dropped, but the crypto bull thesis hasn’t changed.

They remain laser-focused on the major forces playing out in the crypto sector – ETF inflows, tokenization initiatives, bank participation, stablecoin growth.

All of those big-picture fundamental indicators are still moving forward (and one could argue that they’re accelerating).

And more broadly, both JPMorgan and BlackRock are bullish stocks (especially AI) into 2026, with BlackRock going full risk-on mode.

So their macro view is bullish as well.

That means the only real crypto bear case remaining is four-year cycle seasonality.

Unfortunately, this latest drawdown lined up nearly perfectly with a 4-year cycle view and thus bears are in control. Until they aren’t.

If/when prices do grind back up to near ATHs, the bull case that JPMorgan (and many others) has laid out will be shining brighter than ever. And 4-year truthers will have a hard decision to make.

And with the Fed meeting on deck today, that catalyst to ignite the run back to ATH could be here sooner than later. Time will tell…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors pumped then sold off ahead of today’s FOMC, with ETH leading; BTC +1% at $91,900; ETH +6% at $3,320, BNB -1% at $885, SOL +3% at $137
• ZEC (+11%), ADA (+3%) and DASH (+3%) led top movers
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to cut the Fed interest rate by 25 bps today
• PNC Bank enabled Bitcoin trading for customers via Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service offering, joining the wave of U.S. banks offering direct BTC exposure
• SEC Chair Paul Atkins said many ICO-style tokens, especially meme, utility, and DeFi tokens fall outside SEC jurisdiction and could default to CFTC oversight
• Stripe and Paradigm’s Tempo blockchain opened its public testnet
• Circle and Aleo announced USDCx, a privacy-centric USDC variant on Aleo’s testnet
• Senator Cory Booker warned that the Senate crypto market-structure bill faced low odds without more Democrats appointed to the SEC and CFTC
• An American Teacher’s Union urged the Senate to scrap crypto-market bill, saying the proposed legislation would strip away core investor protections
• Rep. Keith Self filed an amendment to a crypto-fix bill ahead of a major hearing, aiming to ban any future U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC)

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

In Memes / Onchain Movers

• Memecoin leaders are mostly green; DOGE +3%, Shiba -1%, PEPE +1%, PENGU +4%, BONK -3%, TRUMP +1%, SPX +2%, and FARTCOIN -4%
• 67 jumped 80% to $20M leading top onchain meme movers; pippin +80%, and spark +74% also made big moves

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

• HumidiFi’s WET token soared 220% in its debut to $325M, marking a 5-6x for those in the presale
• Meteora shared updates to its DLMM with limit orders and automated vaults, teasing a “new Meteora” coming Q1 2026
• Polymarket flipped DraftKings and FanDuel in site visitors in November, ranked 3rd behind just Robinhood and Coinbase
• Rainbow Wallet announced an ICO on Coinlist, selling 3% of the supply at $100M FDV, starting Dec 11
• Octra, a privacy blockchain project, announced an ICO at $200M on Sonar, selling 10% of its tokens, starting Dec 18
• Fogo announced a FOGO presale for 2% of its supply coming Dec 17th

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT leaders were mixed; Punks even at 30 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 5.28, BAYC -3% at 5.35 ETH; Hypurr’s +11% at 497 HYPE
• Beeple’s ‘Regular Animals’ rebounded 40% to 7.85 ETH, top mover
• Ton’s NFT marketplace Fragment flipped Hyperliquid and Pump Fun in 24 hour revenue with $2.83M
• Doodle’s Doopies mint went live, not yet sold out