Morning Minute: Circle Plunges 20% Over Clarity Act Yield Changes

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes or less, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors gring higher as U.S. lays out path to end war; BTC +1% at $71.4k
• TAO leads all top movers, jumps 15%; Intel co-authors whitepaper with subnet team
• Circle stock drops 20% over new yield language in Clarity Act
• Tether announces first ever audit by Big 4 firm
• CFTC unveils new task force focused on crypto, AI and prediction markets

📉 Circle Has Its Worst Day Ever as the Clarity Act Turns Complicated

Circle stock dropped 20% on Tuesday—its worst single session since going public.

Many attributed the stock’s decline to a new Clarity Act draft which introduced language threatening to ban stablecoin yield “directly or indirectly,” including anything “economically or functionally equivalent to interest.”

Coinbase, which shares USDC reserve income with Circle, dropped 10%.

The draft Clarity Act tasks the SEC, CFTC, and Treasury with jointly defining permissible rewards within one year. One industry leader who reviewed the text called it “a departure” from prior White House discussions, while another called it “the best possible result.” So reviews are mixed ahead of Bank reps reviewing today.

The Tether audit news landed the same day (see next story). If it comes back clean, Tether closes the credibility gap with USDC at exactly the moment USDC’s yield model is under threat. Two-front attack in a single session for Circle.

Key Details

• Circle (CRCL) closed at $101, down 20%; still up ~28% year-to-date
• Coinbase (COIN) fell 10% to $181; stablecoin revenue was ~20% of Q3 2025 total
• The draft bans passive yield but preserves activity-based rewards tied to user behavior

✅ Tether Finally Announces a Big Four Audit

After more than a decade of promises, Tether announced Tuesday it has signed with a Big Four accounting firm for its first full independent audit of USDT reserves. The firm’s name was not disclosed.

Tether claims $192 billion in assets back USDT, held mostly in U.S. Treasuries, but has relied on attestations from Italian firm BDO rather than a full audit since its 2014 founding.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law last summer, requires foreign stablecoin issuers to undergo rigorous reserve audits; and now Tether has signaled intent to comply.

Key Details

• Tether’s $192B in USDT reserves have never undergone a full independent audit
• USDT’s U.S. offshoot USAT, launched in January, was already audited by Deloitte last month
• A clean audit would meaningfully advance Tether’s path to GENIUS Act compliance

🏛️ The CFTC Just Set Up a Task Force for Crypto, AI and Prediction Markets

Chairman Michael Selig announced the CFTC’s new Innovation Task Force Tuesday as a dedicated team to develop regulatory frameworks for builders in crypto, AI, and prediction markets. Led by senior advisor Michael Passalacqua, it will coordinate with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force.

Selig framed it as the agency “future-proofing” regulation and establishing “clear rules of the road” for innovators rather than leaving builders in legal gray zones.

The move lands as the CFTC simultaneously defends its jurisdiction over prediction markets from state-level legal challenges and congressional Democrats pushing sports betting restrictions.

Key Details

• Task force covers crypto, AI, and prediction markets simultaneously
• CFTC recently published event contract compliance guidance and invited public comment on new prediction market rulemaking
• Comes as Democrat-led legislation pushes to ban sports betting on prediction market platforms

🎰 Over 50% of Pump.fun Traders Lost Money This Month

New Dune analytics data shows that more than half of all wallets trading Pump.fun-launched tokens posted a net loss in March.

Around 96% of wallets made under $500 in total profits. The data covers all wallets active on the platform during the month, not just small retail participants.

The numbers land as Pump.fun continues to process enormous volume; the platform has generated hundreds of millions in fees since launch. Yet the PUMP token has fallen over 75% from its $8B peak.

But with a distribution where nearly all profits flow to a tiny fraction of participants, perhaps traders fear the memecoin game is approaching its final innings.

Key Details

• 96% of Pump.fun wallets made under $500 in March
• Over 50% posted a net loss for the month
• PUMP is down 9% on the month at a $1.8B FDV, down over 75% from peak

₿ Bernstein: Bitcoin Has Likely Bottomed, Reiterates $150K Target

Bernstein analysts published a note Tuesday saying Bitcoin has likely bottomed and reiterated a $150,000 BTC price target for 2026 alongside a $450 MSTR price target.

The analysts pointed to Strategy’s STRC preferred share as key evidence. The 11.5% dividend-paying product has allowed Saylor to keep buying Bitcoin aggressively through a 20% BTC drawdown without diluting common shareholders.

MSTR shares are trading around $136 (down 58% from their six-month high) but Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating, calling the company’s $2.25B cash reserve “a fortress” and dismissing fears of a forced BTC liquidation as “unwarranted.”

Key Details

• • Bernstein reiterates $150K BTC price target and $450 MSTR target
  • Strategy is on pace for its second-largest quarterly BTC addition despite the price environment.
  • STRC preferred shares enabled $1.5B+ in BTC purchases this month without common share dilution

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are green and moving higher on Iran War peace momentum; BTC +1% at $71.4k; ETH +1% at $2,180; SOL +1% at $93; HYPE +6% at $41.05
• TAO (+15%), FET (+13%), and RENDER (+7%) led top movers
• Oil -4% at $87; Gold +3.5% at $4,570
• BMO, CME Group, and Google Cloud launched a tokenized cash and deposit platform, making BMO the first bank on CME’s Google Cloud Universal Ledger
• The NYSE partnered with BlackRock-backed Securitize to develop standards for blockchain-native securities representing stocks, bonds, and ETFs
• The Solana Foundation launched the Solana Developer Platform, a single API-driven interface bundling infrastructure from 20+ tech partners, with Mastercard, Western Union, and Worldpay joining as early users
• Invesco will take over management of Superstate’s USTB tokenized treasury fund, entering the $12B tokenized treasuries market

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme majors were mostly green; DOGE +3%, SHIB +1%, PEPE +4%, TRUMP +3%, PENGU +6%, SPX +3%, FARTCOIN +8%
• Captcha (+145x to $5.4M), VNUT (+27x), Either (+80%) and Chud (+133%) led top movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Intel co-authored a whitepaper with a Bittensor (TAO) subnet team Targon (TAO +16%)
• Eureka Labs announced a $6.7M raise to build programmable blocks for Ethereum
• Kast’s Pengu Card went live in partnership with Visa

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly mixed; Punks +3% at 29.4 ETH, Pudgy even at 4.15 ETH, BAYC -1% at 5.25 ETH; Hypurr’s +1% at 409 HYPE
• Pixel Pups (+290%) led notable movers