Moon or Doom: Does Bitcoin Hit $100K or $120K Next?

Where does Bitcoin go next? The crowd has spoken, and it’s changed its mind.

On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, sentiment has suddenly shifted in the last few hours as the price of Bitcoin tumbles further. There’s now a 57% chance Bitcoin sooner drops to $100,000 than hits $120,000, according to Myriad. Just hours earlier, predictors had priced in a 57% chance Bitcoin would head in the other direction.

When prediction markets flip this dramatically, this quickly, it’s time to pay attention.

With BTC trading for just under $108,000, having only recently hit a new all-time high above $125,000, the question isn’t whether Bitcoin is in a short-term bearish phase—it clearly is.

The real question is whether we’re looking at a healthy, say 20%, correction that sets up the next leg higher, or the beginning of something uglier. Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% in the last seven days, testing levels that could determine whether we revisit the psychologically important $100K mark or reclaim the comfortable $120K zone where BTC spent much of the summer.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: What the charts say

A look at the usual technical indicators that traders rely on offers a view of the current picture.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum, with readings over 70 suggesting overbought conditions and under 30 indicating oversold.

Over the last day, we’ve seen a pretty steep dip in Bitcoin’s RSI to 37 points—oversold but not capitulation-level oversold. Right now, traders are mostly short-term bearish, and the Fear and Greed Index (a sentiment indicator that goes from 1 to 100) at 30 points and firmly in the “fear” zone corroborates this.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Anything above 25 generally confirms a trend, but at 25.23, this barely confirms trend establishment for Bitcoin. It suggests the daily downtrend isn’t overwhelmingly strong in the long term, but it was enough to almost cancel the overall bullish momentum of Bitcoin’s recent trends.

Yet this relative weakness in trend strength is deceptive, because the shorter timeframes tell a much darker story. Switch to the four-hour chart and the bear case crystallizes.

The RSI plunges to 32.74, with the ADX rocketing to 34.63—well into “strong trend” territory. When shorter timeframes show stronger trend readings than longer ones, it typically means momentum is accelerating, not slowing.

Here’s the kicker: the four-hour charts also reveal Bitcoin to be in the dreaded “death cross” formation. Exponential moving averages give traders a sense of price supports and resistances over the short, medium, and long term. They track these movements over time to see how they line up and spot trends.

When the 50-EMA (50 day, 50 hour, whatever) crosses above the 200-EMA, that’s called a golden cross. That’s good! It generally means prices over the short term are outpacing prices over the long term. When the 50-EMA crosses below the 200-EMA, that’s called a death cross. That’s not good! It confirms what traders fear: structural damage that won’t heal overnight.

The Ichimoku Cloud indicator—which attempts to show support, resistance, and trend direction all at once—is also showing an ugly picture. Bitcoin trades decisively below the cloud on both timeframes, with the future cloud showing bearish red coloration ahead. Think of it as weather forecasting for price: We’re not just in a storm, but the radar shows more storms coming.

And this is especially important for predictors who are putting money on another market—one that questions whether Bitcoin can recover fast enough to hit $115K by tomorrow.

So, can BTC get there? The technical setup suggests this would require lots of good astral energies. Bitcoin is attempting a recovery after a sharp breakdown from recent highs, with price now trading back above the 20-EMA, but still below the 50, 100, and 200 EMA, which are clustered overhead. This overhead resistance stack would need to be conquered in a single day—a Herculean task given current momentum.

And predictors agree. There’s a 95% Bitcoin does not make it back to $115K by Friday, according to Myriad. Such a lack of faith, maxis, but it’s hard to disagree on this one.

Gravity wins (most likely)

Looking at the complete picture—the four-hour death cross, bearish Ichimoku clouds, strong ADX readings on shorter timeframes, and overwhelming prediction market consensus—the probability matrix clearly favors $100K before $120K.

The path to $106,000 appears almost certain within 48 hours. If that level fails (and current momentum suggests it will), $100,000 becomes magnetic. The psychological impact of revisiting $100K after months above it could trigger algorithmic selling cascades that push prices even lower.

As for tomorrow’s $115K target? With 95% of smart money betting against it and multiple resistance layers overhead, expecting that recovery would be a triumph of hope over evidence; which, again, wouldn’t be surprising considering how volatile crypto—and our politicians who move markets—tend to be.

The $120,000 dream isn’t dead, though. But it requires a fundamental momentum shift that nothing currently indicates. Bitcoin has been trading around the $120K level for several sessions since July, establishing it as a comfortable equilibrium zone. Compare that to the $100K target, and it hasn’t been near that zone since June.

Markets have memory. The next 48 hours will likely determine whether Bitcoin finds its footing at $106K or continues the journey toward the $100K mark. Given current technical conditions, traders should prepare for the latter while hoping for the former.

Key levels to watch:

• Immediate support: $106,400 (Immediate Fibonacci level that must hold or $100K beckons)
• Next Strong Support: $100,000 (increasingly probable)
• Tomorrow’s resistance: $112,000 (likely bounce ceiling)
• Next Strong Resistance: $116,000