Market Turns Defensive as BTC Loses Its Bid

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is slipping into a weaker market structure as the steady bid that supported prices earlier in the year gives way to diminished demand and defensive positioning.

In a recent note, CryptoQuant wrote that the cycle’s core demand wave has already passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury-company buying evaporating, and Strategy’s purchases falling to their lowest levels of the year.

This does not imply an imminent collapse, CryptoQuant argues, but it does mean upside is increasingly limited, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new demand wave emerges.

Polymarket traders are positioning around that weakness, assigning the highest probability to a move toward 85,000 and giving almost no weight to upside scenarios.

Glassnode adds that short-term holders are realizing losses at their fastest pace since the FTX period, ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have shifted into full risk-off mode, with options traders loading up on puts and implied volatility climbing.

Against that backdrop, Glassnode points to the Active Investor cost basis near $88,600 as the market’s next critical test.

A sustained move below this level would put recent active investors into losses for the first time this cycle and signal that bearish momentum is taking control. The next support sits at the True Market Mean around $82,000, which Glassnode describes as the point where a mild bearish phase could give way to a bear market structure similar to 2022 and 2023.

The coming weeks will show whether buyers can reassert themselves or whether support gives way and the downturn becomes more entrenched.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly slipping under $90,000 earlier in the week, leaving the market on edge as it searches for support.

ETH: Ether is trading around $3,038, slipping modestly on the day as it continues to track Bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.

Gold: Gold is trading near $4,067 after touching an intraday high of $4,132, as risk aversion sweeps through the markets.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday as a strong Nvidia earnings report boosted chip stocks, lifting the Nikkei 225 by 3.7%

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Bill Hill Sentenced to 4 Years in Prison for Unlicensed Money Transmitting (CoinDesk)
• New Hampshire Unveils $100 Million Bitcoin Collateralized Municipal Bond (Decrypt)
• Bullish Swings to Profit in Third Quarter After Adding Options, U.S. Spot Trading (CoinDesk)