March Madness

The world faces the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s, thanks to the U.S./Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. A large portion of the world’s oil supply flows through it, as do other critical items, from fertilizer to helium.

“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva told The Wall Street Journal. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.”

Oil prices have climbed from about $70 per barrel to over $100 per barrel since the start of March, as markets have responded to the potential for long-term shortages. Iraq is producing about one-third as much oil daily as before the war. Countries along the Persian Gulf have slowed or halted production, and a refinery in Bahrain was on fire Monday morning after being struck by an Iranian drone.

Stock markets in South Korea and Japan fell sharply in early trading on Monday. America may be somewhat sheltered from the impact of the energy crisis, thanks to our own ample supply of oil and natural gas, but stocks are expected to fall and prices at the pump are up 17 percent since the war began.

Obviously, the longer the conflict in Iran lasts, the more significant the economic fallout will be.

A shipping CEO with tankers near Strait of Hormuz used two words a few hours ago about need for the US to “immediately”, “urgently” open the Strait. Asked “does the White House understand what is at stake?”

— Erin Burnett (@ErinBurnett) March 8, 2026

Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly backed down when global markets have sounded the alarm. Will he do the same this time? The next few days will likely give the answer.

As the war spirals into its second week, bad news abounds. A brief summary of where things stand:

New video adds to the growing evidence that the U.S. hit an elementary school killing 175 people. It contradicts President Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible.

First reported by @Easybakeovensz & @mabl2k. NYT story with @johnismay below.
https://t.co/u6rXAHPZJo

— Malachy Browne (@malachybrowne) March 9, 2026

• Residents of Tehran awoke Sunday morning to black rain and clouds of smoke after airstrikes hit oil infrastructure near the city. Meanwhile, Iranian drone strikes hit critical desalination infrastructure in Bahrain.
• There’s also the threat of blowback. Police in Norway are investigating an explosion outside the U.S. embassy in Oslo. Asked last week about the possibility of attacks targeting Americans at home or abroad, Trump shrugged it off, acknowledging that “some people will die.”
• In the U.S., rising oil prices could do more than inflict temporary pain at the pump and in the stock market. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s estimate for economic output during the first quarter of this year fell from 3 percent to 2.1 percent in less than a week. Higher oil prices could also stoke inflation across the economy.
• And here’s the cherry on top: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declined to rule out the possibility of a military draft when asked about it on Sunday.

So it’s not officially a war, and we’re definitely not putting boots on the ground—but hey now, don’t get too hasty, it’s too soon to say whether your children will be enslaved to fight for…well, whatever it is America is trying to accomplish with this poorly planned and recklessly executed war.

Do I have to play the clip? OK, play the clip:

Trump: “Kamala would get us into World War III…All of your sons and daughters will end up getting a draft notice, a thing called the draft. ‘Dad, what’s this?’ ‘Oh, congratulations, you’ve been drafted into the military. You’re going to fight a war.'” https://t.co/OH4eZRqDXV pic.twitter.com/D4L8i6PCNF

— Home of the Brave (@OfTheBraveUSA) March 8, 2026

As always, there are no solutions, only tradeoffs. Nine days ago, the government of Iran was headed by murderous, awful people. Many of them are now dead. In a vacuum, that is a positive development. But it seems to have solved nothing, and the tradeoffs are becoming impossible to ignore.

The one person who seems giddy about all this is Sen. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.). Back in 2019, President Donald Trump accused Graham of having an endless appetite for war in the Middle East. “Lindsay Graham would like to stay in the Middle East for the next thousand years, with thousands of soldiers and fighting other people’s wars. I want to get out of the Middle East,” Trump said at the time.

Now, Trump seems to be granting Graham’s wish—and Graham has become one of the loudest and most bloodthirsty cheerleaders for the Iran war. During an unhinged appearance on Fox News on Sunday, Graham declared his desire to “blow the hell out of these people” and promised that America would “make a ton of money” by taking out Iran.

One suspects that the last remark was intended to reassure exactly one person. Indeed, Sunday’s interview came on the heels of a Wall Street Journal report explaining how Graham (while working with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) sold Trump on going to war in Iran. “Lindsey hasn’t seen a fist fight he hasn’t wanted to turn into a bombing raid,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R–Tenn.) told the Journal.

If Graham has anything to say about it—and he seems to have a frankly disturbing level of influence at the moment—there will be more wars coming soon.

Lindsey Graham: “You see this hat? Free Cuba. Stay tuned. The liberation of Cuba is upon us…Iran is going down and Cuba is next.” pic.twitter.com/Yqy4ECggvb

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) March 8, 2026

In Memoriam: Auburn University economist Roger Garrison has died. Garrison was best known for his 2001 book Time and Money: The Macroeconomics of Capital Structure, which expanded on the Austrian business cycle theory developed by Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek.

Here’s a 2012 lecture where Garrison explained how the “boom and bust” cycles in the economy affect everything from infrastructure spending to tax policy:

QUICK HITS

• Americans who criticize the administration’s immigration crackdown are being targeted as part of a “government campaign to detain and demonize dissenters.” 
• Ruben Ray Martinez, an American citizen, was shot and killed by immigration enforcement agents in March 2025, but the Department of Homeland Security kept the incident under wraps until last month.
• A device found during a protest outside Gracie Mansion was “an improvised explosive device that could have caused serious injury or death,” according to the New York City Police.
• Fox News apologized for showing “incorrect” footage of President Donald Trump receiving the remains of American soldiers killed in the Middle East. Trump had been criticized for wearing a baseball cap during the ceremony, but Fox misled viewers by using old footage of a hatless Trump.
• Lots of ugly news in the Roundup this morning, so let’s finish with a palate cleanser. Please enjoy this footage of Kyle Schwarber doing his best George Washington impression:

NO DOUBT ABOUT IT!

KYLE SCHWARBER GIVES TEAM USA THE LEAD ???????? pic.twitter.com/s0r7SsCKSo

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026