Here’s how traders and big buyers played bitcoin during the oil shock

The Iran war and oil surge rocked global equity markets this month. Yet bitcoin BTC$69,922.92 barely budged — because large traders, institutional flows and sizeable wallet holders stepped in during the dips, keeping demand firm even as traditional markets wobbled.

Major oil benchmarks, Brent and WTI, have surged 30% this month, trading above $100 per barrel early Monday. The massive surge has weighed heavily on Asian equity markets and also caused downside volatility in Asian and European equities.

Bitcoin, however, has risen nearly 4% to $70,200 this month, according to CoinDesk data. The market has been propped by large traders snapping up BTC over-the-counter (OTC) in a privately negotiated deal, according to Paul Howard, senior director at high-frequency trading firm and liquidity provider Wincent.

“The demand has been driven by some large over-the-counter [OTC] trades, positioning for a swift end to the conflict in Iran, and also MSTR’s acquisition. The timing of which, with the geopolitical events, may be an indicator of confidence returning to risk assets,” Howard said in an email to CoinDesk.

OTC desks are private trading venues where buyers and sellers can execute large cryptocurrency transactions without going through public exchanges. Instead of placing orders on open order books, trades are negotiated directly between parties or facilitated by a broker. Large traders and institutions typically trade over-the-counter to avoid influencing the spot market price.

Howard also highlighted renewed investor interest in the popular “carry trade,” where traders short (bearish bet) Strategy (MSTR) stock while buying bitcoin ETFs at the same time. The strategy profits if BTC rises faster than MSTR falls, allowing traders to hedge risk while still benefiting from bitcoin’s moves.

Speaking of ETFs, the 11 U.S.-listed funds have registered net inflows of over $700 million this month, according to data source SoSoValue. That’s a sign of renewed institutional appetite for the cryptocurrency.

“Institutional flows have also turned supportive. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows of around $1.7 billion since late February. This reversed a stretch of outflows that lasted roughly four months. For the March 8-10 period, flows contributed to a weekly net inflow of about $568 million,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said.

Nexo, meanwhile, pointed to Strategy’s continued accumulation of bitcoin as a major bullish factor. The Nasdaq-listed firm purchased 17,994 BTC between March 2 and March 8, boosting its total holdings to 738,731 BTC.

The latest purchase matches several days’ worth of new bitcoin entering the market.

“The network has now surpassed 20 million BTC mined, leaving fewer than 1 million coins to be issued. At roughly 450 BTC per day, incremental supply remains limited. Strategy added 17,994 BTC, equivalent to approximately five weeks of issuance, bringing its holdings to roughly 3.7% of the circulating supply,” Nexo’s analyst Iliya Kalchev told CoinDesk.

Demand also funneled through bullish on-chain activity.

“Larger wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC added roughly 0.3% to their balances during recent dips. This points to prudent accumulation during periods of weakness,” Vikram Subburaj said.

He added that more than 400,000 BTC recently changed hands between $60,000 and $70,000.