Fed Policymakers Raise Prospect of Interest Rate Hikes

United States Federal Reserve policymakers discussed the possibility of interest rate increases last month, according to newly released comments from a January meeting.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting from late January were released on Wednesday, revealing that some policymakers were mulling a rate hike due to stubbornly high inflation. 

Several participants indicated that they would support “the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels,” the minutes stated. 

Central bank policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at their January meeting after cutting rates three times at the end of 2025, from 4.5% to current levels.

If enacted, it would be the first rate hike since July 2023. However, CME futures markets indicate a 94% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the Fed’s next meeting on March 18. 

The Federal Reserve has two primary mandates for its policy on rates: inflation and the labor market. 

High inflation concerns persist 

The minutes also revealed that there is a significant “hawkish” contingent that is not yet ready to commit to further cuts. 

Some participants commented that it would likely be appropriate to “hold the policy rate steady for some time” to give them more time to assess economic data. 

However, a number of these participants judged that “additional policy easing may not be warranted until there was a clear indication that the progress of disinflation was firmly back on track.”

Related: Why Bitcoin has recently reacted more to liquidity conditions than to rate cuts

Most participants cautioned that progress toward the 2% inflation objective “might be slower and more uneven than generally expected,” judging that there was a meaningful risk of it remaining above the target. 

If inflation were to decline in line with expectations, rate reductions “would likely be appropriate,” the minutes stated.  

US inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently 2.4%, having increased 0.2% in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

Rate hikes are typically bad for crypto prices

Higher rates are generally bearish for high-risk assets such as crypto, as safer assets like Treasury bonds or cash offer better returns with no risk. 

Higher rates also make borrowing more expensive, which reduces speculative activity, leverage, and venture capital investments. 

Crypto market sentiment, which is already at rock bottom, could also be further hit by a hawkish Federal Reserve. 

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