Even Prediction Markets Didn’t See BTC’s Selloff Coming

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin’s slide into the low 90s has forced prediction markets into one of their fastest sentiment resets of the year, with traders abruptly abandoning upside scenarios and repricing the drawdown as a deeper structural break rather than a routine correction.

The shift marks a rare moment where retail and institutional bettors were caught off guard at the same time. Polymarket odds about bitcoin’s price by year’s end have swung hard toward further downside, reflecting a market that expected mild weakness rather than a multi-week selloff that erased most of bitcoin’s year-to-date gains.

In a recent note, QCP warned that even professional desks were not positioned for a weekly close below 100,000 or the loss of the 50-week moving average, calling the move a cycle-level inflection that traders are still digesting.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows similar stress, with oversold momentum, heavy realized losses, and moderating ETF outflows pointing to late-stage capitulation pressures as bitcoin trades in a zone where prior bottoms have formed.

But CryptoQuant argues in a recent note the market is still missing the last ingredient for a true bottom, noting that realized losses remain virtually nonexistent and that long-term holders are still selling into strength.

For now, the market sits between early signs of exhaustion and the lack of capitulation that usually defines a durable floor, setting up a volatile stretch as traders decide which signal wins out.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin slipped to about 92,500 during the U.S. session, down roughly 2% on the day and 27% from last month’s record high.

ETH: Ether held just above 3,000, easing about 2% over the past 24 hours and extending its weekly decline to roughly 15%.

Gold: Gold slipped to about $4,069 an ounce, down 0.3%, as fading expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a firmer dollar weighed on the metal after briefly pushing it above $4,100 earlier.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday after a tech-led slide on Wall Street, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.92% as investors awaited Nvidia earnings and the September jobs report.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• DappRadar Shuts Down, Citing ‘Financially Unsustainable’ Market (CoinDesk)
• Ethereum Is the Opposite of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, Says Vitalik Buterin (Decrypt)
• Man behind Barack Obama and Jeff Bezos Twitter hacks to repay over $5 million in stolen bitcoin (The Block)