Crypto conditions signal less likely chance of ‘major capitulation’: Lyn Alden

A significant crash for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market doesn’t look likely at this stage, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.

“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation,” Alden said during a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast.

“The cycle could go on for longer than people can expect, because it’s not driven by the halving, it’s driven by broader macro and interest in the asset itself,” Alden said, shutting down the idea that the four-year cycle is still intact.

The sentiment mirrors comments from other crypto industry executives, such as Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who recently dismissed the four-year-cycle theory and said the market is likely in “for a good few years.”

Alden says market outcomes usually not as good or bad as people expect

However, not everyone agrees with Alden that a major capitulation is off the table.  Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, recently told Cointelegraph that he expects a Bitcoin (BTC) retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.

Alden said market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors imagine. “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she said.

It comes as Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, dropping to as low as $80,700 on Thursday before recovering slightly to $85,710 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. 

Market sentiment has also fallen, as many traders were expecting year-end strength and even new highs, with some, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, calling for a move toward $250,000.

Alden says, “No one is owed a bull market”

Bitcoin’s recent price plunge has traders obsessing over when the next uptrend will begin, but Alden said investors need to stop treating bull cycles like they’re guaranteed.

Related: Bitcoin OG’s selling to ‘weak’ hands will deepen selloffs: Peter Schiff

“People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market,” Alden said. “No one is owed a bull market,” she said.

Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level in 2026 and to either set new all-time highs that year or, if not, in 2027.

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