Change of Character: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market is in the red again, with bitcoin BTC$104,868.96 showing signs of what forex traders would term a “CHoCH,” or change of character. In this case, it’s tipping bearish.

Since October last year, bitcoin bulls have ruled the options market, piling into calls at $100K and above on Deribit, pushing those strikes to the top of the open interest leaderboard. Fast forward to today, and the change is evident.

The $95K put option has an open interest of $1.80 billion, only slightly smaller than the $1.85 billion locked in the most popular option, the $140K call. Puts at strikes $80K, $85K and $90K also carry open interest of $1.40 billion-$1.55 billion.

The change of character is a sign that the market’s attitude toward risk is evolving. It’s not just a jargon, but a tool traders use to spot potential trend reversals. In an uptrend, it happens when the price breaks below a prior swing low, signaling that the bullish march might be losing steam.

That’s precisely the case in BTC, whose spot price recently dropped below $107,250, slicing through a low from early September. The move invalidated the bullish higher highs, higher lows pattern. While bulls tried to recover today, they came up short, reinforcing the shift.

The result? BTC’s price was trading near $105,000, a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. Major altcoins, such as ether ETH$3,550.89, XRP$2.4551 and BNB BNB$973.02, registered significant losses, and the CoinDesk 20 Index dropped more than 2%.

Indexes tied to memecoins, computing and smart contract tokens ex-ether, all fell, representing broader market weakness. The DeFi Select index stood out with 6% gains, largely due to its largest component, Uniswap’s UNI token, surging 23%.

UNI’s rally occurred after the protocol founder, Hayden Adams, proposed a plan to activate protocol fees, burn UNI tokens using those fees and remove 100 million UNI from the treasury, shifting the model toward deflation.

In other key news, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS announced new guidelines, opening doors for Wall Street-traded crypto products to generate staking yield for investors.

In traditional markets, concerns are mounting about the slide in the share price of business-development companies like Blue Owl Capital (OWL), despite broader market strength. For some observers, this decline signals distress in the high-yield, riskiest segment of private credit. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Nov. 11, 7 a.m.: Brazil Oct. Inflation. Headline rate YoY Est. 4.75%, MoM Est. 0.16%.
  • Nov. 11, 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change Weekly (Prev. 14.25K).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Uniswap is voting on a proposal from GFX Labs to create a “Community Proposal Factory” (CPF), a subDAO designed to lower the barrier for governance. Voting ends Nov. 11.
• Unlocks
  • Nov. 11: APT$3.1900 to unlock 2.11% of its circulating supply worth $32.35 million.
• Token Launches
  • Nov. 11: Adix (ADIX) to be listed on Gate.
  • Nov. 11: KuCoin to discontinue its spot pre-market product.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.59% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $104,994.61 (24hrs: -0.78%)
• ETH is up 0.4 at $3,555.25 (24hrs: -1.06%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.08% at 3,424.67 (24hrs: -1.92%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.86%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.00013% (-0.3132% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.58
• Gold futures are up 0.58% at $4,146.00
• Silver futures are up 0.88% at $50.76
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.14% at 50,842.93
• Hang Seng closed up 0.18% at 26,696.41
• FTSE is up 0.84% at 9,868.88
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.5% at 5,692.52
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.81% at 47,368.63
• S&P 500 closed up 1.54% at 6,832.43
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.27% at 23,527.17
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.35% at 30,316.63
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.73% at 3,107.50
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.9 bps at 4.122%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% at 6,843.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.34% at 25,626.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,449.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 60.02% (0.14%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03398 (0.96%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,054 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $42.79
• Total Fees: 3.85 BTC / $408,527
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,570 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 25 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.04%

Technical Analysis

• The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio remains stuck in a falling channel, implying ether underperformance.
• Traders need to watch out for a potential breakout, as such a move would mean increased bias for ether and the broader altcoin market.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $317.93 (+2.84%), -1.11% at $314.40 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $104.1 (+0.93%), -0.85% at $103.22
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.79 (+0.73%), -1.23% at $31.40
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $46.59 (+3.35%), -0.32% at $46.44
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.58 (-1.83%), -0.58% at $15.49
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.32 (+1.82%), -0.81% at $17.18
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.29 (-4.46%), -2.33% at $18.84
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.03 (-3.47%), -5.52% at $14.20
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $53.58 (-2.74%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $21.86 (+1.11%), -3.02% at $21.20

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $238.88 (-1.26%), -1.31% at $235.75
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.27 (+6.05%), +1.40% at $29.68
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.95 (-0.08%), unchanged in pre-market
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.35(+1.36%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.26 (+7.62%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $1.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $59.95 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.33 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $0 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.88 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.56 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin’s $588B Range Masks Market Vulnerabilities: 10x Research (CoinDesk): 10x Research’s Markus Thielen says about 5.9 million coins changed hands at prices between $100,000 and $126,000, leaving many recent buyers exposed to a drop below $100,000 toward a $93,000 liquidity gap.
• Diversification, Not Hype, Now Drives Digital Asset Investing: Sygnum (CoinDesk): A survey found professional allocators favor actively managed multicoin portfolios over single-token bets, and more than 70% would increase ETF exposure if staking support receives regulatory approval.
• Gold Extends Gains on U.S. Fiscal Concerns, Rate-Cut Expectations (Bloomberg): The precious metal hovered near $4,140 after a government restart deal set up the release of long-delayed reports expected to show weaker growth and strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs.
• Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms (CoinDesk): On Polymarket, traders put the chance that the federal government will reopen at 96% for Nov. 12-15, in line with an expected House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.
• Gemini Slumps After Missing Earnings Estimates in First Report Since IPO (CoinDesk): Crypto exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) reported a $6.67-per-share third-quarter loss even as revenue doubled to $50.6 million, with heavy marketing and IPO costs weighing on earnings.