Can Solana outperform Ether if ETFs get approved?

Key takeaways:

• ETH ETFs have opened access, but flows remain cyclical.

• SOL’s plumbing is set: CME futures are live, with options slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).

• The SEC’s generic standards now allow faster spot-commodity ETP listings beyond BTC and ETH.

• For SOL to outperform ETH, it will need sustained creations, tight hedging, real onchain usage and continued developer momentum.

It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has the head start in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs began trading on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $107 million in first-day net inflows and opening a mainstream path for investors through brokers and retirement accounts.

However, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options slated for Oct. 13.

In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission adopted “generic listing standards” that streamline how exchanges can list spot commodity exchange-traded products (ETPs), potentially widening the gate beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.

Also, outside the US, SOL already trades in regulated investment wrappers through Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.

With that access already in place, the question is whether a US SOL ETF can fuel lasting demand that allows Solana to outperform Ether on both price and fundamentals.

Before tackling that, let’s set the context.

What ETH ETFs changed, and what they didn’t

Spot Ether ETFs began trading in the US on July 23, 2024. On the first day, they recorded approximately $1 billion in trading volume and about $107 million in net inflows, opening a mainstream channel for investors such as registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still trailed the scale of Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.

Flows since then have been cyclical. Through mid-2025, ETH experienced periods of net creations punctuated by outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, reports showed renewed strength, with multi-week inflows into Ether products that lifted total crypto assets under management (AUM). In short, ETFs improved access, but they did not eliminate market cycles.

At times in 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto assets, supported by steady ETF demand and visible institutional and treasury accumulation. This pattern suggests that while ETFs do not alter core network fundamentals, they can influence which asset leads during phases of capital rotation.

One design choice still matters: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, limiting their income potential compared with holding native ETH directly. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to allow staking, but, as of October 2025, has delayed decisions across multiple issuers. If staking is permitted — even partially — it could shift the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership.

Did you know? US exchanges publish an indicative net asset value (iNAV) approximately every 15 seconds, allowing traders to see where an ETF should be priced intraday.

Solana today: Usage, growth and risks

In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter leading all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, data showed Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of all other major L1s and L2s — strong indicators of usage intensity.

In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a sharp rebound from the lows of late 2024. The supply of USDC on Solana stands at approximately $9.35 billion, while the network’s total stablecoin supply more than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.

Even so, Ethereum still carried the majority of value moved by stablecoins year-to-date — roughly 60% as of mid-2025 — showing Solana’s gains are meaningful but not yet dominant.

Cost and speed remain key draws: Sub-cent fees, 400-millisecond block times and high throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity — and a focal point of 2025’s memecoin boom. That volume supports liquidity but also concentrates flows in speculative segments.

Two structural risks are worth watching. 

• Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and client patch (v1.17.20).

• Regulation: Past US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered security — a characterization the Solana Foundation disputes. Outcomes in this area remain highly policy-dependent.

Did you know? CME plans daily, monthly and quarterly expiries for SOL options, expanding hedging menus for ETF market makers.

What a US SOL ETF would likely change

1. Access and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels used by registered investment advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the buyer base beyond crypto-native venues.

2. Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives give authorized participants (APs) and market makers the tools to hedge creations and redemptions, as well as to run basis or relative-value trades. These mechanics help keep ETF prices close to their NAV and support day-one liquidity.

3. Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” widen the path beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors satisfy the rules.

4. Ex-US demand signals: Already, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) show that regulated investment wrappers for Solana can attract investor interest.

Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs instead. That is why “ETP” appears on SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.

Can SOL actually outperform ETH?

The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)

A timely US spot SOL ETF with strong early net creations could outpace Ether on total return.

Two key levers:

1. Broader access: RIAs and brokerages gain exposure under the new generic listing standards.

2. Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and greater capacity as APs hedge via CME Solana futures and listed options.

The base case

Even if a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows may revert to tracking general risk appetite. Ether retains a structural institutional edge — thanks to its longer history, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystem. Weekly fund flow fluctuations in crypto reflect how relative performance may be choppy rather than decisively tilted toward SOL.

The bear case

Timelines slipping or eligibility questions under the US SEC framework could dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity may soften, and APs could run smaller books despite the availability of derivatives, limiting creations. In that scenario, Solana would underperform Ether, which already benefits from a more mature distribution.

It is also worth noting that some regulators have expressed concerns about reduced case-by-case scrutiny under the generic listing standards, adding policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

What to keep an eye on

If a US spot SOL ETF is approved, the real story could be what happens next.

The key signals to watch are straightforward. Do creations and redemptions show persistent demand? Does CME open interest and options activity deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics like active users, fee revenue, stablecoin settlement and developer growth hold up beyond speculative bursts? If those needles move together, the odds of SOL outpacing ETH rise sharply.

A Solana ETF would remove a major access bottleneck and arrive with stronger market infrastructure than past cycles. Yet Ether has already proven it can attract billions through ETFs while anchoring the institutional conversation.

ETH remains the benchmark, and its flows — though cyclical — demonstrate its staying power. Whether Solana truly outperforms will depend less on hype and more on whether ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.