BTC’s inflation-adjusted peak this year less impressive than thought

Bitcoin BTC$87,842.41 may have traded above $126,000 in October, but according to Alex Thorn, global head of research at Galaxy Digital, its true value — once inflation is factored in — never crossed the six-figure mark.

“If you adjust the price of bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100K,” Thorn wrote in a post on X. “It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms.”

Thorn is pointing out the difference between nominal and real prices. The nominal price reflects what bitcoin cost at the time, in that year’s dollars. The real price, on the other hand, adjusts for inflation — giving a more accurate sense of the asset’s purchasing power compared to a constant year like 2020.

Why choose the beginning of 2020 as a start? Thorn said that was just before the Fed’s big print in response to Covid.

Possible takeaways

The data could give fodder to both bulls and bears. Bulls might say bitcoin’s run higher from the 2022 lows isn’t quite as parabolic as previously thought. That might thus suggest a lot less froth at that nominal $126,000 high in October and a lot more room for the bull move to continue.

Bears, on the other hand, might say bitcoin’s weaker inflation-adjusted performance means the asset isn’t living up to its advertising as a hedge against dollar printing. Stick with gold, they might add, though the yellow metal — on a hot run right now — has had its own issues outperforming inflation in recent decades.