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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market recovered over the weekend, offering a brief reprieve after sticky selling pressure kept cryptocurrency prices depressed in the aftermath of a $500 billion value-destruction event.
The price of bitcoin rose 3% in the past 24 hours to $110,770. It remains down about 4% for the month. The recovery came as global risk sentiment improves, with equities rising and investors rotating back into more volatile assets.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s softer stance on tariffs and signs that the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy later this year have helped calm markets. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose 4.3% in the past 24 hours with all members in the green.
“While bitcoin has seen a notable short-term correction, the long-term trend remains a different story, as the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is still heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, U.S. dollar strength, spot bitcoin ETF flows, and geopolitical risks,” XS.com markets analyst Linh Tran told CoinDesk in an emailed statement.
Still, short-term momentum may not signal a lasting trend. Analysts at Coinbase Institutional warned that thin liquidity, a strong U.S. dollar and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate path continue to weigh on market structure.
A spike in U.S. Treasury yields at the end of last week and geopolitical tensions with Israel conducting retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza after attacks on its forces while a ceasefire was in effect and as Russia advances in Ukraine, have kept many institutional investors cautious.
Nevertheless corporate accumulation has kept on going, with BitcoinTreasuries data showing that in the past 30 days these entities increased their holdings by 8.4% to 4.04 million BTC. Access to crypto exposure is also growing, with BlackRock and 21Shares adding debuting their crypto ETPs on the London Stock Exchange for retail investors.
“Overall, in my view, bitcoin is currently in a reaccumulation phase following its short-term correction, with market sentiment stabilizing and institutional demand remaining resilient,” Tran added. Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 20: Ether treasury firm ETHZilla Corp. (ETHZ) will implement a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, reducing outstanding shares to 16 million.
- Macro
- Oct. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. PPI. Headline YoY (Prev. 4%), MoM (Prev. 0.5%).
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105K to develop detailed performance and security metrics for the Gnosis Chain P2P network. Voting ends Oct. 21.
- 1inch DAO is voting to remove the 5% Unicorn Power staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting ends Oct. 21.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 20: to unlock 7.86% of its circulating supply worth $44.73 million.
- Token Launches
- Oct. 20: Falcon Finance’s S2 staking deadline.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- An increase in value across several altcoins, notably popular memecoin floki, resulted in an improvement in sentiment across the crypto market on Monday, although CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index remains at 26/100, indicating investor preference for bitcoin over speculative plays.
- Bitcoin dominance, a metric used to assess how much of crypto’s total market cap can be attributed to BTC, is at 58.8%, an increase from this time last month when it was at 57.2%.
- While there were signs of recovery on Monday, several altcoins are still significantly lower than they were a week ago. Synthetix is down by 30%, with others including FET, ASTER and BNB all facing losses of between 15% and 25%.
- One of the drivers of positive sentiment on Monday was LINK, which rose by 14% after a series of wallets collectively withdrew $116 million worth of tokens from Binance, indicating accumulation following last week’s crash.
- The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.2/100, suggesting that the market is in a state of limbo as it distances itself from key levels of support but remains far off challenging major levels of resistance.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC options positioning remains firmly bullish, with a put-call open-interest ratio of 0.66 and a large build-up at the $140K strike, where over $2.4B in notional call exposure is concentrated. This indicates traders are continuing to price in upside momentum into year-end, even as spot volatility rises.
- Total open interest on bitcoin Deribit options has climbed to 427,746 contracts, marking a yearly high. The Dec. 26 expiry dominates ($14.3B notional), suggesting traders are extending bullish bets further out the curve while keeping tactical flexibility in shorter-dated options.
- ETH options show similar positioning, with call dominance around the $4K–$4.5K strikes and rising open interest into late December expiries, mirroring BTC’s structure.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 3.65% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $110,980.77 (24hrs: +3.32%)
- ETH is up 5% at $4,051.70 (24hrs: +2.96%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 5.52% at 3,706.47 (24hrs: +3.47%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 14 bps at 2.82%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6097% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.48
- Gold futures are up 1.52% at $4,277.30
- Silver futures are up 1.50% at $50.85
- Nikkei 225 closed up 3.37% at 49,185.50
- Hang Seng closed up 2.42% at 25,858.83
- FTSE is up 0.28% at 9,381.02
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.64% at 5,643.36
- DJIA closed on Friday up 0.52% at 46,190.61
- S&P 500 closed up 0.53% at 6,664.01
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 22,679.97
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.15% at 30,108.48
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.55% at 2,884.62
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.5 bps at 4.014%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,719.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.34% at 25,071.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.19% at 46,469.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.68% (0.18%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03649 (-0.46%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,153 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.74
- Total Fees: 2.23 BTC / $240,861
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,335 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.4 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.44%
Technical Analysis
- After retesting the weekly order block during the Oct. 10th liquidation cascade, the ETH-BTC ratio closed the week above the yearly open, a positive sign for bulls.
- Holding this key level will be crucial because the ratio often serves as a leading indicator for altcoin outperformance.
- With ETH-BTC now breaking out of a multiweek downtrend, the next major resistance lies at the 100-week exponential moving average, currently around $0.03904.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $336.02 (+1.75%), +3.4% at $347.43
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.49 (-1.53%), +3.43% at $130.74
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.78 (-5.34%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $57.07 (-0.83%), +2.59% at $58.58
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.57 (-3.43%), +4.65% at $20.48
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $20.03 (+2.46%), +3.89% at $20.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19 (-3.41%), +2.58% at $19.49
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.52 (-2.33%), +4.38% at $20.38
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $58.23 (-1.85%), +5.74% at $61.57
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.86 (-1.27%), unchanged in pre-market
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $289.87 (+2.12%), +3.72% at $300.65
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.18 (-6.04%), +2.55% at $23.77
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.34 (-1.58%), +3.7% at $14.87
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.4 (-3.74%), +5.74% at $5.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.88 (+1.62%), +4.79% at $1.97
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$366.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.50 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$232.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.61 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
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