BTC can bounce but market still lacks fuel for a real run

Bitcoin is finding space to bounce, but not yet the fuel to run.

The macro backdrop has improved just enough to give bulls something to work with. Cooling headline inflation has strengthened expectations for three rate cuts this year, reviving the familiar playbook in which easier monetary policy supports risk assets.

And it could signal the possibility of liquidity slowly returning after months of tight financial conditions for crypto markets.

But caution against reading too much into that shift. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to embark on an aggressive easing cycle. Instead, it appears set for a measured approach that rebuilds liquidity gradually. That creates an environment where bitcoin can stage tactical rallies yet struggle to hold them.

Bitfinex analysts describe the market as one prone to moves in waves rather than clean breakouts.

“In this environment, volatility remains likely,” the firm said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “Tactical upside moves can occur when positioning becomes overly defensive, but a durable structural advance will require clearer confirmation from both macro disinflation trends and sustained spot demand.”

Spot recoveries continue to meet steady selling. Each bounce is absorbed more smoothly than earlier in the quarter, suggesting some stabilization.

The overnight tape is a good example. Bitcoin traded as high as $68,500 before rolling over during the U.S. afternoon and sliding under $66,000, a move that lined up with a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed minutes. That kind of intraday reversal is the market’s way of saying rallies are still fragile, and that traders are quick to sell the moment macro conditions turn even slightly less friendly.

“It is alarming that Bitcoin’s dynamics mirror the recent strengthening of the dollar. When investors become convinced that the rise of the dollar is a trend, there may be a sharp increase in volatility,” Alex Kuptsikevich, the FxPro chief market analyst, said in an email.”

“Volatility seems to have been turned off in this market, while stock indices are much livelier. There, investors are actively buying up dips, relying on support in the form of important moving averages: 50-day for the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 and 200-day for the Nasdaq100. The crypto market is now below its 50- and 200-day curves by 17% and 31%, respectively,” he added.

Sentiment remains fragile, meanwhile, as a crypto fear gauge has printed single digits on nine of the past fourteen days, territory rarely seen outside prior cycle lows.

At the same time, stablecoin outflows from major exchanges point to tighter liquidity, and long-term holders have shown signs of stress comparable to late bear-market phases in 2022, according to Glassnode.

For now, bitcoin appears caught between improving macro optics and stubborn supply. Tactical upside remains possible, especially when positioning leans too defensive.

A durable advance, however, likely requires clearer evidence of disinflation, a softer dollar and consistent spot demand. Until then, the path higher may be uneven.