Bitcoin’s U.S. demand signal flickers back after crash

Bitcoin’s BTC$69,697.31 sharp rebound from last week’s plunge toward $60,000 has been accompanied by a subtle but important shift in one closely watched indicator of U.S. demand.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — which tracks the price gap between bitcoin traded on Coinbase and the global market average — has climbed sharply from deeply negative territory, moving from around -0.22% at the height of the selloff to roughly -0.05% by Tuesday.

While the index remains below zero, the rebound suggests U.S.-based investors stepped in to buy the dip as forced selling pressure eased.

Coinbase is widely viewed as a proxy for institutional and dollar-based flows. A deeply negative premium typically signals U.S. investors are either selling aggressively or staying on the sidelines altogether. The move back toward neutral indicates that some buyers found value at lower levels, particularly as bitcoin stabilized after its fastest drawdown since the FTX collapse in 2022.

Still, the premium has not turned positive, a threshold that historically coincides with sustained accumulation and renewed risk appetite among U.S. funds. Instead, the current move points to selective buying rather than broader conviction.

Market structure data supports that cautious interpretation. Aggregate trading volumes across major exchanges remain well below late-2025 highs, according to Kaiko, with spot activity showing signs of gradual attrition rather than a decisive surge in demand.

Thin liquidity means prices can bounce sharply once selling exhausts itself, but also leaves the market vulnerable to renewed downside if buyers fail to follow through.

Bitcoin is currently trading just under $70,000 after recovering more than 15% from its intraday low, though it remains down over 10% on the week.