Bitcoin’s 2025 bull run was ‘forward-loaded.’ Then it collapsed.

Bitcoin’s BTC$88,900.11 bull run in 2025 was expected to be historic, with some industry experts suggesting the largest cryptocurrency would reach highs of $180,000-$200,000 by year-end.

Historic it was. Just not the way anyone thought.

It’s true that bitcoin punched to an all-time high earlier than most models projected, rising to over $126,200 on Oct. 6. But then, four days later, came a flash crash that sent the market reeling, exposing just how fragile and unpredictable trading digital assets can be.

Since then, bitcoin’s fallen 30% from the October record, and more than 50% below most 2025 forecasts. Far from shooting up, it dropped 6% this year, and spent most of the past two months stuck between $83,000 and $96,000, according to TradingView prices.

October’s crash caught traders off guard and wiped out months of leveraged bullishness in minutes. But it wasn’t a breakdown, according to Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, it was a rebalancing and a sign of the cryptocurrency’s growing acceptance by institutions.

Bitcoin was re-priced as a risk asset, not a revolution.

“The October 10 flash crash wasn’t a failure of bitcoin,” Greenspan said in an interview. “It was a liquidity event, triggered by macro stress, trade-war fears, and crowded positioning, that exposed how forward-loaded the cycle had become.”

The sudden change in behavior made forecasting nearly impossible, and made some of the space’s most recognizable analysts eat their words.

Read more: In 2025, bitcoin showed how spectacularly wrong price forecasts can be

As the year started, experts such Matt Hougan, Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer, Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital’s CEO, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research and others shared optimistic forecasts, but as it comes to a close and the dust settles, the reality is entirely different.

‘Cautious capital’

What happened? Simply put, bitcoin’s ideological roots were overtaken by its growing acceptance as an institutional asset. This shift changed how bitcoin was traded and evaluated by sophisticated investors from traditional markets.

‘What went wrong in 2025 is that bitcoin quietly crossed a threshold. It stopped being a fringe, retail-driven asset and became part of the institutional macro complex,” Quantum Economics’ Greenspan told CoinDesk. “Once Wall Street arrived, bitcoin began trading less on ideology and more on liquidity, positioning, and policy.”

With Wall Street’s involvement, bitcoin became more closely tied to macroeconomic events, which impact all asset classes. The cryptocurrency may still be pitched as a hedge against the Federal Reserve, but it’s now more sensitive than ever to Fed policy.

“Markets came into 2025 expecting faster, deeper Fed easing — and that simply hasn’t materialized,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam. “BTC, like other risk assets, is paying the price for cautious capital.”

In addition, October’s liquidation cascade left both retail and institutional investors bruised.

“Derivatives-driven liquidations made for a choppy, unpredictable market where one batch triggered the next,” Fernandes said.” It’s no surprise ETF inflows dried up.”

From January through October, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $9.2 billion in net inflows, or around $230 million a week. But then the momentum reversed sharply. From October through December, the figures turned negative, with over $1.3 billion in net outflows, including a $650 million withdrawal in just four days in late December.

Quantum Economics’ Greenspan pointed to a fundamental Catch-22: “Bitcoin is often framed as a hedge against the Federal Reserve, yet in practice it still depends on Fed-driven liquidity.’” Since 2022, the Fed has been steadily withdrawing liquidity from the system, and this liquidity ultimately flows into risk assets, including bitcoin.

“When that tide goes out, the upside becomes fragile,” he added.

Skewed expectations

This changed reality creates a conundrum for bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Mass adoption and price rally need Wall Street’s capital, but that capital is a double-edged sword.

“Most people assumed institutional adoption would mean bitcoin to a million [dollars] faster than you can blink,” said Kevin Murcko, CEO of crypto exchange CoinMetro. “But now that it’s institutionalized, it’s being treated like any other Wall Street asset.

“That means it responds to fundamentals, not just belief,” he said. “We’re seeing prices react to everything from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ending cheap capital to political uncertainty around the Fed itself. And institutions don’t like uncertainty.”

Then there are weekends.

“Bitcoin trades 24/7, but capital flows don’t; most big flows are Mon-Fri. So when the weekend hits, and leverage is high, you get cascading liquidations.”

Silver lining

However, this doesn’t mean it’s all doom and gloom. In fact, it’s a positive shift toward higher prices, just slower than expected, according to the experts.

Bitwise’s Hougan said he believes the general trend remains upward: “It’ll be messy. But the macro direction is clear.

“The market is driven by the collision of powerful, persistent positive forces and periodic, violent negative ones.” He said, remaining optimistic despite the recent washouts. “Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, macro concerns around fiat debasement, and real-world use cases like stablecoins — those are slow-moving, positive forces. They take a decade to play out.”

Bitcoin, traditionally seen as following a four-year cycle tied to the regular 50% cuts in the creation of new tokens paid out to miners, is likely to create a new dynamic in 2026, he said.

“The old cycle drivers—halvings, interest rates, and leverage—are significantly weaker,” he told CoinDesk earlier this month. Future growth will be driven by more mature, structural forces, such as institutional flows, regulatory clarity, and global asset diversification. “That’s why we believe bitcoin could hit new all-time highs in 2026 — even outside the traditional halving cycle.”

Quantum Economics’ Greenspan perhaps summed up what’s happening with bitcoin and where it’s going.

“This wasn’t ‘peak bitcoin,’” he said. “It was the moment bitcoin officially started playing in Wall Street’s pond.”