Bitcoin set for ‘dramatic’ surge if it doesn’t top soon: Peter Brandt

Bitcoin is poised for unprecedented price discovery as long as it doesn’t peak within the next few days, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.

“It is reasonable to expect a bull market high any day now,” Brandt told Cointelegraph on Wednesday, citing Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical cycle pattern, which has played out in the three previous cycles.

“These cycles from low-to-halving-to-high have not always been the same length, but the post-halving distance of each has always been equal to the pre-halving distance,” Brandt said.

Sunday marked the crucial day for Bitcoin’s cycle

Brandt explained that Bitcoin hit its current cycle low on Nov. 9, 2022, which was 533 days before the Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024. 

“Add 533 days to April 20, 2024, and bingo, it is this week,” he said. That date fell on Sunday, just one day before Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $126,100 on Monday.

However, Brandt emphasized, “there is always an ‘except,’” which could be significant for how Bitcoin’s price plays out. “Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic,” he said.

Brandt noted that while market cycles don’t always repeat in the same way, Bitcoin has followed them consistently so far. 

“Sooner or later, cycles change. But betting against a cycle that has a perfect three-for-three record should not be done with reckless abandon,” he said.

Brandt said he is 50/50 on the outcome. “I will remain bullish, hopeful for counter-cyclicality. In this case, a move well beyond $150,000 would be my expectation, perhaps as high as $185,000,” Brandt said.

Bitcoin four-year cycle debate continues

It comes as the debate continues over whether crypto’s four-year cycle remains relevant, given the onset of institutional adoption, ETF products and corporate digital asset treasuries.

In July, crypto analyst Rekt Capital similarly said that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October.

“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt said on July 3.