Bitcoin Rebounds as Polymarket Traders Bet U.S. Shutdown Will End Within Days

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BTC and ETH rebounded overnight as traders bet the U.S. government shutdown will soon end, lifting risk sentiment after a volatile week.

Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $106,269, while Ethereum gained 7.4% to $3,643, according to CoinDesk market data, recouping some of last week’s losses as macro uncertainty eased and liquidity returned to majors.

On Polymarket, odds of the government reopening on November 12 surged after Senate negotiators reached a bipartisan deal late Sunday. The agreement funds the government through January 30, reverses recent federal layoffs, and guarantees a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits, provisions that secured at least eight Democratic votes in favor.

The shift marks one of the sharpest sentiment reversals of the year. Just 24 hours earlier, traders saw a 63% chance the shutdown would drag beyond November 16 and into Thanksgiving.

Now that President Trump has told reporters “we’re getting close to the shutdown ending,” markets are treating a resolution by mid-week as all but certain.

Air travel and welfare programs remain disrupted in the meantime, with the FAA ordering a 4% reduction in flights that has caused thousands of cancellations and the USDA halting food-stamp payments.

But with Washington finally nearing a deal, both equities and crypto are signaling relief after weeks of paralysis.

Even though the U.S. government looks to be on the verge of reopening, there are some wrinkles that still impact crypto. For example, traders are skeptical that the SEC will have time to approve a Cardano ETF before the end of the year.

Just a month ago, the chances of an ADA ETF becoming reality by the end of 2025 were at 90%, CoinDesk previously reported.

Now, it’s at 38%.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin climbed 4.2% to $106,269 as traders priced in a U.S. government funding deal and bet that risk sentiment would recover once the 40-day shutdown ends.

ETH: Ethereum jumped 7.4% to $3,643, outperforming majors as easing macro uncertainty and renewed liquidity fueled short-covering and rotation into high-beta crypto assets.

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