Bitcoin Profit Cycle Turns Negative for First Time Since 2023: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin holders are crossing a psychological threshold not seen in over two years, transitioning from booking profits to losses.

The net realized profit/loss, which captures the aggregate gain or loss investors lock in when they move coins on-chain, has slipped into negative territory, suggesting widespread loss-taking is underway.

“This is the first time holders realized net losses in a 30-day period since October 2023,” analysts at CryptoQuant stated in a Thursday report.

“Bitcoin tourists are cutting losses,” Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, tweeted Thursday, suggesting that short-term holders are selling their holdings by booking losses.

It signals a potential inflection point from the bull market that began in late 2023, providing a critical on-chain health check for investors gauging market strength.

Cumulative net realized losses over the period total approximately 69,000 BTC. With Bitcoin down nearly 1% to $89,700, per CoinGecko, these losses amount to $6.18 billion. 

Regardless, the divergence is stark when compared to earlier market highs.

The March 2024 price peak saw 1.2 million BTC in realized profit, but by October 2025, even as Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high of $124,774, that figure had fallen to 331,000 BTC. 

“Net realized losses are also tracking similar levels and patterns to March 2022, by which point the bear market was already underway,” the CryptoQuant report said, adding that “declining net realized profits indicate a loss of strength in the price of Bitcoin.”

The decline is not necessarily a signal of an impending downturn, Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt.

“I don’t think these two are correlated,” Dawson said, adding that the decline in net realized profit and loss was a sign of lowered volatility due to “more sophisticated players entering the digital asset space.”

Instead, Dawson emphasized macroeconomic factors as the primary driver for Bitcoin’s price, noting the asset’s increasing sensitivity to policy shifts.

The top crypto’s plunge below $90,000 has been driven, in part, by ripple effects of Japan’s bond market crisis and the subsequent $1 billion liquidation run-up after Trump reversed course on Greenland and associated tariff plans.

“I’d place a heavier emphasis on Fed rate forecasts, the impending U.S. debt crisis, and its foreign policy,” Dawson said.

He pointed to the upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve as a pivotal but optimistic variable, especially for Bitcoin, adding that the markets will likely “see very favourable conditions as the Trump administration wants the economy to run hot.”

Whether the negative profit cycle catalyzes a sustained downturn or a temporary reset now hinges on which lens proves more accurate.