Bitcoin Price (BTC) Analysis: Crypto Winter Parallels

Glassnode’s latest weekly report highlights similarities between current market conditions and the early stages of the 2022 bear market, otherwise known as crypto winter.

The first metric that suggests stress is the elevated risk of top buyer capitulation. Glassnode’s supply quantiles cost basis, which tracks the cost basis of supply held by top buyers, shows that since mid-November the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile and is trading near $96,100. This places more than 25% of BTC supply underwater. A similar breakdown below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market.

At the same time, total supply in loss on a 7-day simple moving average has now reached 7.1 million bitcoin, the top end of the 5 million to 7 million range seen in early 2022.

Despite these pressures, capital continues to flow into bitcoin on a realized cap net change basis, which stands near $8.69 billion per month. This, though, remains far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode.

Off chain trends show additional softening from investors. ETF demand continues to weaken, with IBIT registering a sixth consecutive week of outflows, its longest negative streak since launching in January 2024. The outflows now total more than $2.7 billion in redemptions over the last five weeks.

Spot market activity is also deteriorating. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) has rolled over, with Binance CVD trending persistently negative, Glassnode observes. The Coinbase premium, meanwhile looks like it will be rolling over again, after recently flipping positive following a long period in the red.

Derivatives data reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest has fallen throughout November into December, suggesting reduced willingness to take on risk, particularly after the Oct. 10 liquidation flash crash event. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with brief periods of negative prints, and the funding premium has cooled notably which points to a more balanced and less speculative environment.

Glassnode also notes that traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The firm sees a cautious stance in the options market where upside is being sold rather than chased. Earlier in the week, put buying dominated as bitcoin approached $80,000. As price later stabilized, flows shifted toward call activity as investor fears calmed.