Bitcoin hits ‘most bearish’ levels: Is the bull cycle ending?

Bitcoin is entering bearish territory as institutional demand dries up and key market indicators point to a downward phase, according to data from analytics platform CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin (BTC) market conditions have turned the “most bearish” within the current bull cycle that started in January 2023, CryptoQuant said in its latest crypto weekly report shared with Cointelegraph.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has declined to extreme bearish levels of 20/100, while the BTC price has fallen far below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 — a key technical level and the final bearish signal marking the start of the 2022 bear market.

The price drop comes amid weakening institutional demand, including reduced buying by Bitcoin treasury firms such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, along with limited inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Corporate Bitcoin demand tapers off

Even with Strategy’s latest purchase of 8,178 BTC ($835 million) — its largest acquisition since July 2025 — the buy remains significantly smaller than many of its previous major purchases, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno noted in an X post on Wednesday.

“Treasury companies have basically stopped buying, some have even sold part of their holdings,” Moreno observed, referring to companies like Metaplanet, whose most recent BTC purchase was in September.

In addition to waning corporate buying, Bitcoin ETFs have also been under pressure, with year-to-date inflows dropping to $27.4 billion — 52% below last year’s total of $41.7 billion, according to data from CoinShares.

Key market drivers “off the cards”

Addressing the past key market catalysts, CryptoQuant mentioned Donald Trump’s presidential election win in 2024, which pushed Bitcoin above $100,000 for the first time by early December.

In 2025, the launch of several Bitcoin Treasury Companies pushed Bitcoin above $120,000 in August. “Those catalysts are now gone,” the report states, adding:

“What would be a catalyst strong enough to reaccelerate Bitcoin demand in 2026? Major developments seem off the cards (US Gov Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) or highly discounted by the market (Fed lowering interest rates further).”

The downward trend potentially aligns with the four-year cycle, echoing previous cycles that lasted four years, including 2014–2017 and 2018–2021, CryptoQuant noted, adding that the current cycle (2022–2025) is coming to an end under this criterion.

Related: Corporate buying stirs debate over Bitcoin’s long-term decentralization

“Does this imply a rapid Bitcoin price collapse? No. So far, Bitcoin is experiencing a 28% drawdown and has declined towards major support levels of $90,000–$92,000,” the report said, adding:

“Even in bear markets, prices can rally 40%–50% in the span of a few months. However, now that the price of Bitcoin is below its 365–day MA, this level becomes a strong price resistance ($102.6K).”

CryptoQuant’s report came hours before Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000 on Wednesday, with the price dropping to as low as $88,400, its lowest price point since April 2025, according to Coinbase. The cryptocurrency has since slightly recovered, trading at around $91,650 at the time of publication.