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Cryptocurrency prices nudged higher after U.S. President Donald Trump said a direct tariff dividend of “at least” $2,000 will be paid out to most Americans.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the U.S. is generating “trillions of dollars” in tariffs and said the funds would both reduce the country’s $37 trillion national debt and finance the dividend.
“A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” Trump wrote. The announcement helped cryptocurrency prices rise.
Bitcoin climbed 1.93% over the past 24 hours to trade above $103,000. Ether rose 4.75% to surpass $3,500, while solana gained 2.49% to top $160. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose more than 1.5%.
The modest rally comes amid a broader weekly slump that saw the CD20 index plunge nearly 15% before it started to recover. Bitcoin is still down 5.7% for the week, while ETH s down 7.5%.
Still, the reaction suggests traders may be pricing in the potential for higher consumer spending and crypto market inflows if and when these funds reach recipients.
Key considerations
While the news of the tariff dividend has generated excitement in the market, it is important to note that the payment is unlikely to happen immediately.
The President alone cannot authorize or execute this payment, as federal spending decisions rest with the legislative branch and any plan to distribute funds collected from tariffs requires approval and appropriation by Congress, as Andy Constan, CEO and CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, pointed out X.
To the dismay of the bulls, given the ongoing debates and legal challenges surrounding Trump’s tariffs, the prospect of swift Congressional action appears uncertain.
Meanwhile, tax and budget experts have pointed out that the total amount of revenue generated from tariffs so far falls short of the funds needed to cover payments to the large number of eligible recipients.
“The President just proposed a $2,000 tariff “dividend” for each person, excluding high-income earners. If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. If kids qualify, that grows. Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far,” Erica York, vice president of Federal Tax Policy, noted on X.
She added that after accounting for the full budget impact of tariffs, the financial picture becomes less favorable.
Every dollar raised through tariff revenue effectively offsets approximately 24 cents of income and payroll tax collections due to the broader economic effects on taxable income. After adjusting for this interaction, the net revenue generated by tariffs stands at around $90 billion—significantly less than the $300 billion proposed for the rebate program, York explained.
This gap means Trump could face challenges in funding the $2,000 dividend solely from tariff revenues.
15:53 UTC: Adds a section on potential legislative and budgetary challenges to Trump’s plan.
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