Bitcoin bullish bets now a bargain as weekly loss underlines bearish trend: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market feels extra slippery after bitcoin BTC$87,840.64 fell 7% last week, its biggest loss in two months. Yet hope glimmers in bullish derivative bets, now at bargain prices.

The drop pushed prices below the steady uphill path, a “bullish trendline” as technical analysts call it, that held the stair-step rise from $20,000 in early 2023 to a record $126,000 last October.

The pattern reinforces concerns sparked by bitcoin’s sharp pull back from the all-time high: We have slipped into a bear market (check the TA section). So far, the follow-up slide has been tame. Bitcoin prices rebounded to nearly $88,000 from the weekend low of around $86,000.

Still, the overall picture looks gloomy, with weakening institutional appetite for cryptocurrency accompanying the bearish message from charts. Spot ETFs listed in the U.S. registered a net outflow of $1.33 billion last week, the most in 11 months, according to SoSoValue data. On Monday, they pulled in just $6.84 million.

“At times, it seems that speculators’ capital and attention are now focused exclusively on precious metals (mainly gold and silver), and there is simply no strength left for crypto,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FXPro, said in an email.

Some observers think money will return once the gold and silver rallies fade. If you share a similar bullish view, BTC call options — derivative contracts giving big upside potential for a small upfront cost — offer the best way to bet on it.

These call options look cheap as everyone is piling into puts, which offer downside protection, according to Matthew Siegel, head of digital assets research at VanEck.

“Downside protection is officially the crowded trade. While everyone pays a premium for puts, upside exposure [calls] is trading cheap. If you have a thesis for a bounce, the vol surface is offering a discount,” Siegel said.

In other news, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rick Rieder, who manages some $2.4 trillion in client money and favors lower U.S. interest rates, has emerged as a contender for the Fed chairmanship after Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

In traditional markets, both gold and silver traded at their lifetime peaks, while the Dollar Index held at its lowest since September last year.

South Korea’s benchmark equity index, Kospi, continued to rise, taking the year-to-date gain to 20%, building on last year’s solid 75% surge. This matters because, oddly, over the years, Kospi’s new highs have triggered downside swings in bitcoin. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Jan. 27: U.S. ADP employment change weekly (Prev. 8K)
  • Jan. 27: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price YoY for Nov. (Prev. 1.3%); MoM (Prev. -0.3%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Jan. 27: Zebec Network, Dash, Houdini Swap, and Cryptic to participate in an X Spaces session on why privacy matters.
  • Jan. 27: Brave’s Brendan Eich, Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson, and Mythigal Games’ John Linden to participate in an X Spaces session.
  • Jan. 27: PancakeSwap to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with Venus protocol.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 27: Theo Network expected to make an announcement, possible linked to the launch of thGOLD.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.38% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,326.08 (24hrs: -0.18%)
• ETH is up 0.1% at $2,929.56 (24hrs: +0.22%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.58% at 2,683.47 (24hrs: +0.32%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0074% (8.068% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 97.01
• Gold futures are unchanged at $5,082.10
• Silver futures are down 2.82% at $112.25
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.85% at 53,333.54
• Hang Seng closed up 1.35% at 27,126.95
• FTSE is up 0.4% at 10,189.88
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.22% at 5,970.72
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.64% at 49,412.40
• S&P 500 closed up 0.50% at 6,950.23
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.43% at 23,601.36
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.16% at 33,093.32
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.36% at 3,604.49
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.221%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,999.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.56% at 25,994.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,518.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.67% (-0.07%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03307 (-0.28%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 921 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.22
• Total fees: 2.38 BTC / $208,632
• CME Futures Open Interest: 120,620 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 17.2 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 5.87%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows bitcoin’s price swing starting in 2023.
• Prices fell over 7% last week, with the big red candle piercing the trendline that represents the stair-step rally from 2023.
• The so-called breakdown confirms bear-market concerns.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $213.48 (-1.60%), +0.76% at $215.10 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $70.90 (-0.60%), +0.56% at $71.30
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.28 (-1.94%), +0.38% at $31.40
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.66 (-0.25%), +1.04% at $36.03
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.98 (-4.95%), +0.70% at $10.05
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.23 (-6.08%), +1.42% at $16.46
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.05 (+1.38%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.44 (-9.26%), +0.88% at $12.55
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $46.58 (-5.21%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.72 (-1.80%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $160.58 (-1.55%), +0.46% at $161.32
• Strive (ASST): closed at $0.79 (-9.76%), +2.56% at $0.81
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.38 (-3.79%), unchanged in pre-market
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.89 (-5.50%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.29 (+1.57%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $6.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.48 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $117 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.45 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million

Source: Farside Investors

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