Bitcoin (BTC) snoozes into Good Friday as oil and macro stir: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$66,942.46 is stuck in a tight range near $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday, as geopolitical tensions and shifting macro expectations keep prices contained.

While the cryptocurrency saw a slight rise in the last 24 hour period it failed to break above $67,000. It’s struggling as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a harsher stance on Iran, now threatening the country’s infrastructure.

Brent crude hit $120 per barrel on spot markets, levels not seen since 2008, over the ongoing crisis and its effects on the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipping that has effectively been shut down.

That surge in energy prices pushed up inflation expectations and undercut the case for rate cuts, a key support for bitcoin’s recent rally. Inflation in Europe has already risen to 2.5%, driven by energy costs.

The pressure has revealed a divide in market structure. Institutional inflows into bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, with $22 million in net inflows this week. But data from CryptoQuant show total apparent demand has flipped negative, with large holders distributing more than they accumulate.

Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shed nearly 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak, the data shows. Nearly half of all bitcoin in circulation is, at current prices, trading at a loss.

Heading into the long weekend, liquidity is set to remain thin. That leaves bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility based on developments in the Middle East or macro-linked statements. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for March est. 48K (Prev. -92K)
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for March est. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
  • April 3, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March (Prev. 56.1)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • SSV Network DAO is voting across two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to enhance security against phishing, and to establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.35% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,785.73 (24hrs: +0.65%)
• ETH is unchanged at $2,058.20 (24hrs: +0.94%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.26% at 1,902.32 (24hrs: +0.80%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.77%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0007% (-0.7731% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.99
• Gold futures are up 1.07% at $4,701.30
• Silver futures are up 0.60% at $73.17
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49
• Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
• FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,436.29
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% at 5,678.00
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.13% at 46,504.67
• S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.31%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,613.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.10% at 24,167.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.10% at 46,678.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $30.68
• Total Fees: 2.54 BTC / $170,134
• CME Futures Open Interest: 106,230 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 15.9 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in tether’s dominance rate in candlestick format. The dominance rate represents the share of stablecoin tether in the total crypto market.
• The dominance rate is rising again after a temporary pullback, or counter-trend correction. This breakout suggests that the broader uptrend in dominance has likely resumed.
• This has bearish implications for the broader market, as dollar-pegged assets like Tether typically gain dominance during market-wide sell-offs.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged in after-hours
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% at $17.69
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), –1.03% at $8.62
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged at $12.86
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), –0.62% at $16.13
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), –0.80% at $6.05
• CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), –0.17% at $35.70
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% at $90.80
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), –0.19% at $36.30

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% at $9.76
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% at $6.21
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), –2.12% at $0.95
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged at $1.12

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$71.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first Western European transit during Iran war (euronews): The news could encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days and it follows Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi announcement of a deal with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. repatriates Chinese drug fugitive in a sign of stabilizing ties (The Wall Street Journal): This is the first case of its kind in recent years and is described as a rare move that points to cooperation ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit next month.

Iran strikes Gulf energy sites as Trump warns of further attacks (Bloomberg): Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states, including in Kuwait Friday morning, hours after Trump issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran to start peace negotiations.

Japan turns up FX heat as volatility rises, signals readiness to act (Reuters): The yen, trading near the psychologically key 160-per-dollar mark, lingered at levels that stoke concerns of market intervention, highlighting growing unease over the speed and scale of its decline.