Bitcoin (BTC) Price’s Volatility Meltdown: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$92,285.06, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, continues to trade directionless above $90,000, with implied volatility in meltdown as the year end approaches.

Volmex’s BVIV, which tracks bitcoin’s options-based 30-day implied volatility, has dropped to an annualized 45.10%, the lowest since Nov. 10, according to TradingView data. That’s down from a peak of 65% observed on Nov. 21.

Coins like ZEC and AAVE have gained over 9% in the past 24 hours, outpacing BTC and ether ETH$3,239.22. HYPE, TAO and SUI are up over 5% while KAS and TRX are down over 1%. The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 Indices are up over 2% each, pointing to some bullishness in the broader market.

Analysts say they expect the choppy price action in BTC to continue.

“Traders should expect high-volatility chop and avoid extrapolating intraday strength,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“The market is stabilizing, but the foundation remains fragile. Price action is constructive, yet liquidity is thin and ETF flows are split, the hallmark of a market searching for direction rather than committing to one,” he said.

This is consistent with financial markets’ tendency to take time to recover following a crash that dents investor confidence and clears excessive leverage.

Speaking of leverage, cumulative open interest in BTC and ETH futures and perpetual futures has dropped by 36% and 35%, respectively, over the past three months. Open interest in solana SOL$138.54 and XRP$2.0408 has declined 53% and 59.5%, respectively, with DOGE$0.1410 seeing a 70% decline.

Clearly, there has been a major offloading of risk, led by memecoins.

In traditional markets, gold has resumed its rally, with the dollar weakening to multiweek lows following the Fed meeting. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
  • Dec. 12: EstateX (ESX) platform becomes available to everyone. Fractional real estate shares are purchasable via PROPX.
  • Dec. 12: Stripe turns on dollar‑settled stablecoin payments for merchants, supporting USDC on Ethereum, Solana, Polygon and Base, USDP on Ethereum and Solana and USDG on Ethereum.
• Macro
  • Dec. 12: Federal Reserve begins reserve‑management purchases of Treasury bills under the implementation note to the Dec. 10 FOMC decision.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Dec. 12: Arbitrum and Lava Network to host a fireside chat on scaling blockchains with RPC APIs.
  • Nexus Mutual DAO is voting on starting a USDC vault by Q1 to generate yield for sophisticated investors by backing real-world insurance policies. Voting ends Dec. 13.
• Unlocks
  • Dec. 13: CHEEL$0.5322 to unlock 2.86% of its circulating supply worth $11.02 million.
• Token Launches
  • Dec. 12: RaveDAO (RAVE) to be listed on Binance, Gate.io, MEXC, Kraken, Bitget, BitMart, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.36% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $92,560.78 (24hrs: +2.34%)
• ETH is unchanged at $3,253.10 (24hrs: +1.27%)
• CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 2,940.88 (24hrs: +2.26%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.84%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0078% (8.5957% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.12% at 98.47
• Gold futures are up 1.25% at $4,367.00
• Silver futures are up 0.12% at $64.67
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.37% at 50,836.55
• Hang Seng closed up 1.75% at 25,976.79
• FTSE is up 0.24% at 9,726.05
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.52% at 5,783.89
• DJIA closed on Thursday up 1.34% at 48,704.01
• S&P 500 closed up 0.21% at 6,901.00
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.25% at 23,593.86
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.54% at 31,660.73
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.34% at 3,171.63
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.5 bps at 4.166%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.14% at 6,897.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.49% at 25,588.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.21% at 48,850.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.38% (-0.12%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03507 (0.21%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,096 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.46
• Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $240,075
• CME Futures Open Interest: 123,350 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 21.3 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.18%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily price swings in XAUT$4,334.99, a digital token that represents ownership of one troy fine ounce of physical gold.
• The token’s price recently broke out of triangular consolidation, refreshing the broader uptrend.
• Prices now seem headed for record highs.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $269.02 (-2.21%), +0.55% at $270.49 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $88.57 (+0.18%), -0.16% at $88.43
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $29.86 (+1.15%), unchanged in pre-market
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $45.38 (-1.63%), -0.22% at $45.28
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (-0.67%), +0.17% at $11.86
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.75 (+1.16%), unchanged in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.40 (+0.4%), -0.11% at $17.38
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.82 (+2%), -0.47% at $14.75
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $46.34 (+0.94%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $16.59 (+5.47%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $183.30 (-0.73%), -0.1% at $183.12
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $19.22 (-5.55%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.53 (-4.08%), +0.95% at $11.64
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.41 (-1.63%), +3.73% at $2.50
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.81 (-1.63%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$77.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.84 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.31 milli

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$42.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.13 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.33 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• SEC Gives OK to Tokenize Some Stocks in Move to Blockchain (Bloomberg): The no-action letter to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. (DTCC) enables the firm to provide a tokenization service for a select set of highly liquid securities
• Boring Bitcoin’s Green Light Moment Incoming? (CoinDesk): BTC continues to bore traders with its directionless price action, but some indicators, such as Bitcoin’s MACD histogram, are pointing to renewed bullishness.
• Stablecoins Get Backing From Cross-Party UK Lawmakers Urging Pro-Innovation Rules (CoinDesk): The group is concerned by the Bank of England’s proposed framework, which restricts the use of stablecoins in wholesale markets, bans interest on reserves and caps holdings at 20,000 pounds ($26,750).
• XRP Lands on Solana, Ethereum and Others, in Boost for Ripple Ecosystem (CoinDesk): Hex Trust’s new wrapped token debuts with deep liquidity and institutional custody, allowing value to move into DeFi across several chains while avoiding reliance on unregulated bridges or informal cross-chain infrastructure.
• Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Strikes at the Heart of Maduro’s Grip on Power (Wall Street Journal): Paralyzed tanker movements and retreating buyers are undermining the revenue stream that supports the country’s leadership, intensifying financial stress and reducing its ability to secure essential hard-currency inflows.