Bernstein Sees Upside from Loan Growth, Tokenization

Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-based lending platform that went public last year, may be undervalued at current levels as loan originations accelerate and its tokenized credit marketplace scales, according to Bernstein analysts.

In a report published Monday, Bernstein assigned Figure an “Outperform” rating and a $67 price target — nearly double the stock’s recent trading level of around $32.

The bullish call follows a surge in lending activity. Figure originated $1.2 billion in loans in March, up 33% from the previous month and marking the first time monthly volumes exceeded $1 billion. 

The company primarily originates home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), which allow homeowners to borrow against their equity in the property, typically at lower interest rates than unsecured loans.

It uses the Provence blockchain to reduce friction in the loan process which it claims makes it more efficient than traditional lenders. According to Provenance, Figure is able to shave 117 basis points per loan by transacting on the blockchain.

First-quarter originations reached $2.9 billion, more than doubling from a year earlier and defying the usual seasonal slowdown in HELOC demand. The figure is now tracking roughly $12 billion in annualized loan volume.

Figure’s strong start to the year follows a largely positive fourth quarter, where earnings and revenue increased, though profits fell short of expectations.

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Figure stock struggles despite strong fundamentals

Despite improving operating performance, Figure shares have fallen more than 20% this year, reflecting broader volatility across digital asset–linked stocks and sector-specific pressures.

The stock has also struggled to regain momentum following its high-profile Nasdaq market debut last September. That closely watched initial public offering valued the company at nearly $800 million.

Still, Bernstein’s analysis valued the company at roughly 25 times its projected 2027 EBITDA — meaning the stock trades at a multiple of its expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. 

This valuation sits above existing digital asset companies, reflecting what analysts describe as Figure’s “structural prospects” as both a tokenization platform and a profitable lending business.

However, risks remain. According to Bernstein, HELOC demand can be sensitive to mortgage refinancing trends, while the broader private credit market — a key pillar of Figure’s growth strategy — has shown signs of increasing pressure.

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