Crash Risk Rises as ‘Lower Highs’ Clash With Bitcoin’s New Highs

This is an analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Alternative cryptocurrencies typically move in tandem with bitcoin BTC$121,553.00, but the magnitude of their price swings often differs.

Take payments-focused XRP as an example. Since July, every upswing in Bitcoin has triggered rallies in XRP; however, XRP has consistently produced “lower highs.” A lower high occurs when a price peak is lower than the previous one, indicating weakening buying pressure.

This persistent pattern of lower highs in XRP, alongside bitcoin’s new highs, signals underlying weakness in XRP’s momentum – a sign of less conviction among XRP buyers compared to BTC. It suggests that XRP may be vulnerable to sharper losses during bitcoin pullbacks.

Bitcoin embarked on a sharp rally in late September, reaching a new high of over $126,000 on Monday. XRP also saw buying interest, but its upswing peaked at $3.10 – well below its September high of $3.19.

XRP had formed a similar lower high in mid-August, when bitcoin surged to its then-all-time high of $124,000.

This series of lower highs in XRP since July, occurring against the horizontal support zone of $2.65–$2.70, suggests weakening buyer strength.

In other words, with each lower high, the likelihood of XRP breaking below this support zone and potentially triggering a deeper sell-off to $2.00 increases.

Prices need to top the latest lower high of $3.10 with high volumes to invalidate the bearish setup.

That said, as of now, the weekly MACD histogram, a key indicator for assessing trend strength and potential reversals, supports the bearish outlook. It crossed below the zero line last month and is now producing progressively deeper bars beneath zero, signaling strengthening downward momentum.