No Calamity

Votes scheduled for Friday: The partial government shutdown continues into its third day, and legislators have votes scheduled for Friday on funding bills that offer possibilities for extending funding. One would extend it until October 31, possibly putting us into this same situation several weeks from now. But why should we let our politicians get in the way of a good time?

Right now, some 750,000 federal workers are furloughed. The White House has, at every stage of this process, suggested that more permanent reductions in force will be considered throughout this shutdown, but a senior official told The Washington Post yesterday that the administration actually expects to fire some 16,000 federal workers or fewer.

This, like so many Trump administration moves, would fall far short of libertarian hopes. Consider the cuts Democrats have lamented so far, like “$8 billion in energy projects in states represented by Democratic senators and $18 billion for New York transportation projects.” Why should the federal government be funding such projects when they could receive private investment or be funded by the state and city?

The much-ballyhooed jobs report release delay—it was scheduled to be released by the Department of Labor this morning, but will not be—”is the first casualty in what is likely to be a string of delayed or missed economic data,” reports the Post. “The timing could hardly be worse. Policymakers have been watching closely for signs that a cooling job market, rising unemployment and worsening inflation could be weighing on the economy. The September jobs report was expected to provide a much-anticipated snapshot of the U.S. labor market, after a summer of rapid cooling.”

I mean, sure, I suppose. But we’ve been trapped in a cycle of staggeringly large and frequent revisions, such that the jobs numbers we’re seeing in each release aren’t really very accurate. So does this matter much at all?

Of course, it’s possible that the shutdown, if it continues, “could delay other key economic data too, including inflation reports scheduled for Oct. 15 and 31, and third-quarter [gross domestic product] figures on Oct. 30,” adds the Post. And all those factors combined could make it much harder for the Federal Reserve to decide what actions to take with regard to interest rates later in the month. But it seems like most analysts predict they’ll err on the side of another cut: “First, it would take a solid [September] jobs report to keep an [October] hold in play. If the [September] jobs data are not available, Chair [Jerome] Powell will likely be inclined to push for another ‘risk management’ cut,” writes Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau. “Second, the Fed would want to lean against downside risks from an extended shutdown, particularly if government workers are laid off.”

Besides, it’s not like there’s literally no data to go off of in the absence of official government collections: “Economists polled by Bloomberg expected that employers added 53,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 64,000 added on average over the six previous months, before revisions,” reports The New York Times. “Other labor market indicators generated by the private sector have been downbeat. The payroll processor ADP estimated that nongovernmental employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, while the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that companies’ announced hiring plans so far this year were at the lowest level since 2009.”

One of the great dirty little secrets of every government shutdown—which, again, is a misnomer, because vast swaths of the federal bureaucracy continue to operate—is that everything remains mostly fine, and many functions that the federal government currently performs could be phased out or replaced by the private sector.

Scenes from New York: Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani says he wants to end gifted programs for kindergarteners, first graders, and second graders enrolled in New York City public schools. Half of me is so Waldorf-pilled I don’t even mind: Children should be wandering through Prospect Park barefoot, practicing their whittling, not tested and put on high-achieving tracks at the age of five or six. But half of me is livid: Gifted programs are not the enemy, and leveling is not the goal. We’re not pursuing a Harrison Bergeron world. Letting smart children advance faster, stave off boredom, and foster their love of learning should be a major goal of teachers—not equality of outcome.

Also:

People think they’re helping black students by getting rid of these programs and they’re dead wrong—black kids have the *largest* benefits from gifted programs, and universal screening is the best way to help find the ones who belong in them. https://t.co/uv1xFd1wfh

— Jason Kerwin (@jt_kerwin) October 2, 2025

QUICK HITS

• “Currently I think Hollywood is failing us; the quality of its movies has never been lower in my lifetime,” writes Tyler Cowen for The Free Press. “Most of the top hits are boring and predictable tentpole franchises. Fight and chase scenes are overdone and laden with CGI at the expense of good dialogue and dramatic content. If you watch an older movie such as Alfred Hitchcock’s Rear Window (on a large screen, please) or Stanley Kubrick’s Barry Lyndon, you may be shocked how much the art of moviemaking has declined.” (Yes to Rear Window.) But then the article veers off the rails: Cowen seems to believe Tilly Norwood—an AI-generated actress—and others like her will help improve the industry. I highly doubt it.
• Tit for tat: California Gov. Gavin Newsom is now threatening to yank away “billions of dollars” in state funding from California universities if they sign onto the compact offered by the Trump administration—covered in yesterday’s Roundup—that makes demands regarding international student admissions, use of standardized tests, and implementing tuition freezes. “President Donald Trump’s so-called proposed ‘compact’ is nothing short of a hostile takeover of America’s universities,” said Newsom. “It would impose strict government-mandated definitions of academic terms, erase diversity and rip control away from campus leaders to install government-mandated conservative ideology in its place.”
• Two men, 53-year-old Adrian Daulby and 66-year-old Melvin Cravitz were killed while worshipping at Yom Kippur services at a synagogue in Manchester, England. “Police shot and killed a suspect seven minutes after he rammed a car into pedestrians outside the synagogue on Thursday morning and then attacked them with a knife. He wore what appeared to be an explosives belt, which was found to be fake,” reports NPR. Police are investigating it as a terrorist attack.
• Another generic version of the abortion pill, mifepristone, was just approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Mifepristone dilates the cervix, blocks progesterone, and causes a woman’s body to expel the baby. It is prescribed in the U.S. up until roughly 10 to 12 weeks, typically in a two-pill combo with misoprostol.
• Disturbing:

‘New England schools are failing – and ‘nobody seems to care’

Our math and reading scores have been declining for a decade. The “Southern Surge” should be a wake-up call.’

Outstanding new @BostonGlobe coverage juxtaposes the Southern Surge with the New England Plunge.

This… pic.twitter.com/nBR30aqOkY

— Karen Vaites (@karenvaites) October 2, 2025

• I fundamentally do not agree with this or relate. We need consequences when people repeatedly offend:

Whoa. At tonight’s debate, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell just said, if a repeat offender who has committed 6 or 7 crimes is arrested again, “I have no desire to put them in jail.” He says he wants to learn their life story. lol.

— Jason Rantz on Seattle Red (@jasonrantz) October 3, 2025