Bitcoin’s 43% Q3 Rally Meets a Tougher Macro Test

Bitcoin (BTC) is coming off its best third quarter since 2017, but extending the rally may prove more difficult as Treasury yields above 5% offer investors an increasingly attractive alternative to risk assets, according to Delphi Digital. 

In its latest weekly newsletter, Delphi highlighted Bitcoin’s 43% gain in the third quarter, followed by a third straight weekly advance last week. However, “the grind higher is happening against real resistance,” Delphi wrote, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike and surging Treasury yields, which have reached multi-decade highs.

“When a government bond pays over 5% risk-free, every risky asset has to work harder to deserve the money,” Delphi wrote.

Bitcoin has so far managed to overcome the hurdle, helped in part by growing interest in the so-called debasement trade, or the view that persistent government borrowing and currency expansion will erode the dollar’s purchasing power. 

According to Vanessa Grellet, managing partner at crypto-focused venture firm Arche Capital, “the debasement trade doesn’t require low interest rates,” given investors’ growing focus on federal deficits and the government’s rising interest bill.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s price briefly topped $87,000 last week before correcting lower. It has gained more than 35% since mid-August, shortly after the US Treasury announced plans to double its long-dated debt buybacks to support market liquidity, targeting 10- and 20-year notes. Some investors viewed the move as an effort to ease strains in the bond market and contain borrowing costs. Those buybacks have since tripled in size.

Related: Crypto’s billions are back, but the premiums aren’t

Weak jobs data changes rate outlook, for now

The interest rate backdrop facing Bitcoin could become less restrictive after weaker-than-expected jobs data sharply reduced the odds of another Fed rate hike in October. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts of 80,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest nonfarm payrolls report.

The disappointing print added to signs that the labor market is cooling, giving the Fed more room to wait before raising rates again.

Even before the latest payrolls data, Fed officials had signaled they were in no hurry to act. Although policymakers penciled in one additional rate increase this year in their September projections, some officials have since urged patience.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said the central bank does not need to rush into another hike. 

“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency,” Williams said in a speech last week. 

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now puts the odds of an October increase at around 24%, down from more than 75% a week earlier.

Related: Crypto treasury model loses its edge as stock premiums fade: DWF