Morning Minute: Uptober Off to a Green Start

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our daily news show ‘FOMO HOUR’ covering all of the top stories and market action.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors slightly green after weekend chop; BTC at $86.1k
• Pump leads onchain protocols in revenue on the week with $17.9M
• Polymarket CEO teases potential token announcement this week
• Hyperliquid begins HYPE buybacks with USDC fees via AQAV2
• Blast officially shuts down on Friday after holding $2B+ in TVL at peak

BitcoinBTC · USD

$86,077+3.6%

24H7D1M1YYTD

Sep 28Sep 30Oct 2Oct 3Oct 5

$86.8k$85.5k$84.2k$83.0k

24h HighHigh$86,949

24h LowLow$85,098

VolVol$1.1B

Market projectionsOdds by Myriad

→

$50$100$500

Buy

📈 Uptober Off to a Green Start

Bitcoin rallied to $86,500 on Sunday, up 2.07% on the day and 8.57% over the past month. Ethereum sits at $2,720, up 11.05% in thirty days. Nearly everything in the top ten is green. October is living up to its nickname (“Uptober”) so far.

The ETFs were also green. Spot Bitcoin funds took in $31.7 million day and $102.7 million Thursday, so $134.4 million for the month. That’s a two-day streak after September closed with a $148.7 million outflow.

The alt board shows where even more action is. Pump.fun leads the way for notable alts up 26.2% and LayerZero was up 19.8%. Sky and Aave are both up double digits on the week. Those aren’t meme coins, they’re protocols that make money, and most of them run buyback programs. The SEC said eight days ago that buying back your own token doesn’t make it a security as long as the network works. Now it’s easier than ever for investors to buy into the revenue-generating protocols.

Where does this leave us? The gains are real and they’re spreading past Bitcoin. The quietest week for ETF flows in a month is the one where almost everything went up. So it’s more likely crypto-native funds driving this recent price action rather than institutions.

And today is a very interesting day, as the historic 4-year cycle pattern would bottom today based on the Oct 6, 2025 ATH and a 364-day top-to-bottom timeline (played out the past 2 cycles exactly). So if there are no massively negative events today and/or this week, the last remaining bears will be forced to capitulate. And the bull market will officially be on…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are mostly green up 1-2%; BTC +1% at $86.1k; ETH +1% at $2,720; SOL -1% at $121; HYPE +3% at $93; ZEC -1% at $1,320
• Top alt movers include ADA (+11%), FET (+12%), ENA (+10%) and LIT (+8%)
• Oil -1% at $90; Gold +0.6% at $4,190
• Stock futures are slighlty red; DOW -0.14%, Nasdaq -0.2%
• The Ethereum Foundation launched zkAPI a way to pay for AI without the provider knowing who you are; you deposit ETH or USDC once and prove you have the money without revealing which deposit is yours, live on Ethereum now
• Community banks sued the OCC Friday to stop it granting crypto firms national trust charters; the Independent Community Bankers of America calls the charters a side door into banking that skips FDIC insurance and capital rules, and wants Protego’s charter thrown out
• NEAR Intents got all $3.8 million back a day after telling the hacker he’d been identified and had 48 hours; the team dropped its investigation and asked future researchers to use the bug bounty instead
• Chainalysis blamed North Korea for the $387 million Bitget hack and used its own AI to trace the money; the funds left in 23 transfers over three hours onto Ethereum, XRP, Zcash and Tron, and the year’s North Korean total is now past $1 billion
• BofA raised its Coinbase target to $203 from $174 and kept a Buy; it lifted 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts on stronger stablecoin revenue after September’s Fed hike
• Plume launched nBND, a token backed by Fidelity’s $28 billion Total Bond ETF giving onchain investors access to a managed bond fund
• OKX and the NYSE’s parent company told the SEC they’re launching a tokenized stock venue starting with 63 NYSE-listed companies; their joint venture OKXICE filed Sunday under the SEC’s new framework

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $32M in net inflows on Friday; the ETH ETFs saw $17M in outflows and Solana had $1.3M in inflows

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were green up 2-5%; DOGE +3%, SHIB +5%, PEPE +6%, PENGU +5%, TRUMP +2%, SPX +3%, BONK +5%
• Robinhood chain leaders were red and continue their downturn; Pons -5% to $270M; AI -5% at $110M; Cashcat -2% at $159M; Boner +31% to $75M, Programmable +140% and SIMD +100x to $9M led top movers
• Solana top movers Baton +90%, Human +240x, Higgs +250x, and Swordcat +240%

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were slightly red; Punks even at 33 ETH, BAYC -4% at 5.95 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 3.02 ETH
• Identity MD (+52%) and Quotrons (+21%) led top movers