Bitcoin Faces a Support Battle at $78,300 as Middle East Woes Pressure Risk Assets

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $78,000 at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as risk assets fell on renewed Middle East tensions.

Key points:

• Bitcoin briefly dropped under $78,000 for the first time since Sept. 3, following downside pressure on US equities.
• WTI crude oil hit three-month highs near $95 per barrel on renewed military strikes in the Middle East.
• Bitcoin needs to hold $78,300 to avoid a repeat of its May breakdown, analysis warns.

Bitcoin, stocks fall as Middle East woes spark oil surge

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping as low as $77,600 before a modest rebound, its lowest levels since Sept. 3.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

News of Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian cities and oil infrastructure pressured US stocks at the start of the first trading session after the Labor Day holiday. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index were down by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, at the time of writing.

S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Oil prices showed a more pronounced reaction to the events, with WTI crude surging toward $95 per barrel, its highest since June 8. Brent crude targeted the $100 mark for the first time since July 24.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting on a concurrent record rise in US diesel prices, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that “inflation expectations continue to mount as a result.” As Cointelegraph reported, this has been especially apparent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation gauge which is again due for release on Friday.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, US president Donald Trump downplayed the oil spike, pledging lower prices in the future.

“Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon,” he wrote.

Analysis shows BTC price copying failed May breakout

Discussing current BTC price action, trader and analyst Rekt Capital struck a cautious tone, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s failed May breakout.

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At the time, BTC/USD reached $82,800 before reversing, then consolidating at $78,300 and eventually dropping to new macro lows near $57,000. 

“The retest of ~$78300 is now in progress,” he noted in a post on X.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Should the current zone fail to hold as support, BTC/USD would seal another lower high in a series stretching back to October 2025, keeping its 2026 bear market firmly in place.

“Ultimately, a Weekly Close below $78300 followed by a bearish retest just like in early May would likely confirm a breakdown,” Rekt Capital argued in separate analysis on X.