US Labor Data Beat Sends Bitcoin Lower Amid Fed Rate Uncertainty

Key points:

• The US economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, nearly triple economists’ consensus estimate of 56,000.
• Bitcoin sold off from $81,300 to local lows of $78,600 following the data, before recovering to $79,500.
• A rival Bitcoin fork using the Blake2b algorithm saw its first trading activity, with coins changing hands at $350 on exchange Neoxa.

Labor market beats expectations threefold

According to data released on Friday, the US economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, significantly outperforming economists’ consensus expectations of roughly 56,000 jobs. In response to the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) sold off from $81,300 to local lows of $78,600. At the time of writing it stands at $79,500. 

Recent economic data carries added weight, given how divided rate outlooks remain ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 15-16. Under previous Federal Reserve chairs, expectations ahead of the FOMC were mostly well-anchored. However, the lack of forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh, along with potential dissenters in the committee, has resulted in added uncertainty. 

After Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would favor a rate pause pending upcoming inflation data, Polymarket probabilities swung to 60% in favor of a pause and 40% for a 25 basis-point interest rate hike. Friday’s labor market data however, drove the implied probabilities back to a 50/50 split.

Implied Probabilities for the Sep. 16 FOMC rate decision. Source: Polymarket

In response to the strong labor market data, US President Donald Trump leveled new rate-cut demands. “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change,” he stated in a Truth Social post and continued: “High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, ⁠and I won’t allow that to happen!”

Trump had frequently criticized former Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates, but had held back from making similar statements toward Warsh until Friday. 

Blake2b version of Bitcoin attracts first liquidity

When the BIP-110 soft fork activated on Aug. 7, the Bitcoin network briefly split into two competing chains: one enforcing BIP-110’s new rules and another continuing under the existing rules. The BIP-110 side largely stalled because miners did not devote enough computing power to extending that chain.

BIP-110 supporters viewed miners’ refusal to follow the user-activated soft fork (UASF) as evidence that Bitcoin’s mining layer has become too centralized. That criticism was sharpened by the absence of an organized counter-effort from the Bitcoin Core side, such as a user-rejected soft fork (URSF). Only five mining pools control the vast majority of Bitcoin’s hashrate, concentrating significant influence over which chain is extended and which transactions are included in blocks.

Bitcoin Network Hashrate Distribution. Source: Blockchain.com

In response, a subset of BIP-110 supporters, led by LukeDashjr, decided to continue the BIP-110 chain with a change in the proof-of-work algorithm to Blake2b to allow for a new, more decentralized set of miners to emerge using DATUM gateway technology. The corresponding hard fork was initiated on Aug. 30. Every address that held SHA-256 Bitcoin before Aug. 7 (and possibly after) will hold an equivalent amount on the Blake2b version of Bitcoin. So far, the only exchange listing Blake2b Bitcoin is Neoxa. While liquidity remains thin, Blake2b coins are currently trading at $350 against USDC with a 1.1% spread. 

BTCB2/USDC orderbook. Source: Neoxa Exchange

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