US Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Sends Bitcoin Above $65,000

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new August highs into Friday’s Wall Street open as markets reacted to weaker US jobs numbers.

Key points:

• Crypto and risk assets gained after US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July.
• Fed interest-rate bets for September shift from a 0.25% hike to a pause on signs of a weaker labor market.
• Bitcoin and altcoins stayed “resilient” after a week of bearish surprises, per analysis from QCP Capital.

Crypto, stocks higher on low nonfarm payrolls print

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $65,340 on Bitstamp, up 1.3% on the day, as fresh US labour-market data was released.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, per nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, numbers it described as “little changed” versus the month prior.

“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported,” an official statement added.

The combination of negative July values and downward revisions appeared to boost both crypto and US stocks, with traders linking weaker labor-market conditions with potential policy softening from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 index opened 0.5% higher, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index added just over 1%.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reveals that markets are now expecting the Fed to hold interest rates at current levels at its September meeting. As late as yesterday, majority odds had favored a 0.25% rate hike.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Prior to the employment data release, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said that it would “set the tone” for both the September meeting and the Fed’s annual economic Jackson Hole economic symposium, taking place at the end of August. 

Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, predicted that Fed chair Kevin Warsh would be influenced by the extent to which payrolls data shifted lower. 

“An orderly slowdown supports the liquidity relief case, while a print weak enough to raise growth concerns can still pressure risk assets even as rate odds move,” he said in comments sent to Cointelegraph.

Analysis praises Bitcoin, altcoin “resilience”

In its latest crypto and macro overview released on the day, trading company QCP Capital described the macro picture as “uncertain” for Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up: Glassnode

“For crypto, the week’s price action points to resilience rather than clear directional confirmation,” it summarized.

QCP noted that the fallout from the Coldcard wallet exploit, along with BTC sales by corporations including Strategy, had only sparked “limited demand for panic protection” on options markets.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on option traders’ expectations for a BTC price trading-range breakdown to occur next month.