Hormuz Oil Recovery Bets Sparks New All-Time Highs For S&P 500

Bitcoin saw new August highs into Tuesday’s Wall Street open as markets bet on US-Iran tensions again easing.

Key points:

• Bitcoin (BTC) edges higher as optimism over the Strait of Hormuz reopening pushes stocks to new all-time highs.
• Oil prices drop to their lowest levels since July 13 with oil traffic potentially returning on Wednesday.
• BTC acts between two daily moving averages as analysis sees “strong accumulation.”

S&P 500 tops $70 trillion market cap to new high

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to $64,176 on Bitstamp, marking maximum daily gains of around 1%.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Oil prices reacted immediately after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could restart as soon as Wednesday.

Bessent told CNBC that there was “a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position” in the US-Iran war amid ongoing talks between the two sides.

The comments came a day after US President Donald Trump confirmed the waterway reopening dialogue, saying that this could happen “as soon as tomorrow.”

WTI and Brent crude traded 4.8% and 4.6% lower, respectively, at the time of writing, hitting their lowest levels since July 13.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks futures gained prior to the open, which in turn saw the S&P 500 index hit a new record high of 7,713, with its market cap reaching $70 trillion for the first time.

S&P 500 index one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Analysts noted resolution of the Hormuz closure as one factor apt to influence market sentiment when it came to future Federal Reserve policy decisions. Amid an emerging hawkish split between Fed officials on interest rates, markets see 56.7% odds of central bank policymakers approving a 0.25% rate hike at its September meeting, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

“Chairman Kevin Warsh’s limited guidance on the Fed’s reaction function means upcoming data, oil prices and the bond market will have a greater influence on the market’s expectations for the policy path,” Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball said.

Fed target-rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting.
Source: CME Group

BTC accumulation “strong” in stubborn local range

Bitcoin price action remained comparatively subdued compared to stocks as BTC/USD passed $64,000.

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The pair remained held in check by its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $64,388, while its 50-day SMA functioned as support on hourly time frames.

BTC/USD one-hour chart with 21-day, 50-day SMA.
Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With price rangebound, analysis from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported “strong accumulation” among investors. 0.7% of the BTC supply, equivalent to around 155,000 coins, now belongs to investors with a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000.

“This points to absorption rather than capitulation, as buyers accumulated into weakness,” it reported on Monday.

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