Bitcoin Slumps into July Close as Analysts Warn of Bear-Market Repeat

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest levels in over two weeks on Friday as US stocks saw pressure into the monthly close.

Key points:

• Bitcoin approaches $62,000 as daily losses hit 3.5%.
• US stocks saw no positive reactions to relief in Asia, where stocks rebounded after the semiconductor sell-off.
• Analysis warns that Bitcoin bear-market history should continue to repeat in August.

Bitcoin price targets $62,000 in month-end volatility

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling 3.5% to reach $62,369 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on July 14.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks turned red at the open before treading water, diverging from a major relief bounce seen in Asia. There, South Korea’s KOSPI index ended the day up 17.9%, its largest single-day gain on record.

KOSPI index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Semiconductor shares led both the sell-off and the subsequent recovery, reflecting the index’s high exposure to the global AI and memory-chip cycle,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in commentary on the latest macro market moves.

QCP noted that crypto market trading activity increased around the KOSPI gyrations, something it said “highlighted the growing relationship between crypto liquidity, regional equity positioning and broader technology-sector sentiment.” 

Both Japan and Korea reportedly engaged in currency interventions on Thursday, while Japan’s central bank kept benchmark interest rates at 1.0%, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stand pat on Wednesday.

Bitcoin traders see bear-market history repeating in August

BTC/USD approached the end of the monthly candle up 8.5%, marking its strongest July performance since 2022, per data from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Previously, traders had anticipated a relief bounce for the pair lasting until August, mirroring the 2022 bear market and ultimately reaching its next long-term bottom.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, among those seeing BTC price action copying bear-market moves from four years ago, forecast that the tide might not turn immediately.

“It’s likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022,” he wrote in a post on X on Friday.

Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,820, continued to act as resistance after two failed breakouts since mid-June.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView