Bitcoin bounces to $64,300 but the real move waits on the Fed: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market was mixed before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision later Wednesday. The CoinDesk 20 Index has added 0.41% since midnight UTC, with 10 members advancing and 10 declining.

Bitcoin BTC$64,409.00, the largest cryptocurrency, added 0.75% to claw back some of Tuesday’s losses after a volatile 48 hours that saw it spike to $66,700 last week before crashing to $62,400 in the wake of the rout in South Korean stocks.

Inflation running at 4.1% makes the case for the Fed to raise the fed funds target rate for the first time in three years. Balanced against that, a pause in Iran-U.S. hostilities has taken some of the heat out of oil prices and slightly trimmed the odds of an increase.

Ether (ETH) is down 0.13% on the day. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures are both positive, while gold holds above $4,000 and silver gained 1.40%, suggesting markets are hedging rather than committing ahead of the announcement.

Derivatives positioning

• Steady positioning ahead of Fed meeting: The crypto taker long-short volume ratio is almost in a perfect balance ahead of the Fed meeting. Open interest (OI) has held steady near $113 billion over the past 24 hours while volume increased by 10% to $205 billion. Taken together, the numbers point to steady positioning but slightly higher churn.
• Spot gains yet to lift futures participation: Both BTC and ETH’s spot prices have risen more than 1% in 24 hours, but the moves have yet to translate into increased participation in futures. BTC’s OI remains steady near 750K BTC. ETH’s dropped for a fourth straight day to 14.14 million ETH.
• UNI is an exception: Most of the top-20 tokens have seen OI hold steady or fall over 24 hours. UNI is an exception, with OI up slightly to 68.53 million tokens, the most since July 13. This validates the 5% upswing in the token’s price in the wake of BlackRock’s decision to bring its tokenized Treasury fund to the decentralized exchange.
• Mixed signals from OI-adjusted CVD: The 24-hour OI-adjusted CVD paints a mixed picture. It’s positive for tokens such as ADA, TRX, XRP, CC, UNI and ETH, a sign of more and more traders going long at market orders rather than passive limit orders. Other coins display the opposite dynamic.
• Implied volatility stays near recent lows: Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indexes remain near recent lows, a sign that traders do not expect any near-term jitters. It also contradicts the unease in the analyst community over the fact that traders still assign a 35% probability of the Fed raising rates on Wednesday. This is unusual as markets typically reach a consensus on what the Fed will do before the decision.
• Puts dominate BTC options volume: In Deribit-listed options, BTC puts at strikes $62,000, $60,000 and $54,000 dominate the 24-hour volume rankings. A put option offers insurance against price drops in the underlying asset. In ETH’s case, calls are at the top of the list.

Token talk

• XRP led altcoin gains on Wednesday, rising 1.72% to $1.086, with ADA$0.1636 rising 1.48%. Both are continuing to recover from their July lows as the major cryptocurrencies consolidate.
• Jupiter (JUP) was the standout 24-hour performer among DeFi coins, rising 5.79% as trading volume ticked up, extending a recovery that has now seen it rise in three of the past four days.
• FET continued its retreat, falling 4.60% since midnight and 6.78% over 24 hours. The AI token is now down nearly 14% over the past week as the sector’s early-July momentum continues to unwind.
• PUMP$0.001871 shed 5.14%, giving back the bulk of last week’s speculative gains as retail enthusiasm fades.
• Monero (XMR) bucked the trend with a 1.82% gain to $347, quietly extending a run of outperformance from the privacy coin sector that has gone largely unnoticed amid the broader market turbulence.