What next as bitcoin hits a two-week high near $65,500

Two other supports lined up behind the move. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now drawn inflows for five straight sessions totaling more than $600 million, the most sustained institutional buying since mid-July and a reversal of the eight-week outflow run that ran through late June.

And oil, which had climbed for two days on the war, pulled back, with Brent falling 1% to about $88.58 as Iran said mediators were circulating proposals to ease hostilities, including a reported suggestion for a 10-day halt in strikes.

“Current bitcoin and ether prices are low but fair, given the macro uncertainties pervading markets,” said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, who pointed to the Fed meeting as the event traders are positioned around.

“Traders expect rates to hold steady but are looking for more signals as to what’s to come later in the year,” Mei added.

The read on that meeting is where the rally meets its limit. The Federal Reserve gathers July 28 and 29, and markets put the odds of a July rate increase at about 15%, though a September move is still live.

Spot-market volume across crypto stayed subdued even as prices rose, the sign of a tape lifted by returning risk appetite rather than fresh conviction, and higher oil and Treasury yields remain the levers that could keep the Fed hawkish and cap risk assets.