Will US Get CLARITY This Week? Bitcoin’s New $80K Target: Hodler’s Digest

CLARITY hinges on Trump’s ethics

Polymarket suggests the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year are just 40%, after a raft of Democratic Senators, including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen, spoke out against the bill.

A crucial Senate vote could happen as early as this week, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune stating it will definitely be held before Aug. 10.

Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren is trying to spoil the vote by highlighting how much money President Trump has extracted from the industry. She demanded Trump voluntarily release his crypto earnings for this year, after his 2025 disclosure, showed he earned more than a billion dollars from crypto last year. The controversy means that Senate Democrats are unlikely to support the bill without a provision banning elected officials promoting or issuing cryptocurrency.

Summer Mersinger, the CEO of the Blockchain Association and a former commissioner at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said: “Ethics is the big elephant in the room.”

“For my members and what we are advocating for on the Hill… look, whatever you decide on ethics, that’s really not our concern. That is politics. That’s Congress. That’s elected officials. But please don’t let it kill all the hard work that we put in the rest of the bill.”

Source: Polymarket

Prediction markets see record Q2 volume, France blocks Polmarket

Crypto markets continued to flounder in the second quarter, with the notable exception of prediction markets.

Spot trading volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) fell from $2.7 trillion in the first quarter to just $1.95 trillion in the second, according to CoinGecko’s latest Crypto Industry Report.

CEX perps volume also declined 10% to $12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market slipped 1.6% to $305.1 billion. In contrast, prediction markets recorded their strongest quarter on record with $113.8 billion in notional volume.

Polymarket’s World Cup winner market alone has attracted more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, while contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election rank among the platform’s largest markets, according to Polymarketscan data.

Meanwhile, France’s National Gambling Authority has just ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket as it considers prediction markets to be illegal gambling.

Polymarket is blocked in 33 countries… unless you have a VPN of course.

Strategy became a symbol of the dot-com crash: Could history repeat?

Senate agrees SBF should serve his time as FTX distributes another $900M

The US Senate has adopted a resolution opposing executive clemency for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.

The measure cannot block a presidential pardon but reflects bipartisan Senate opposition.

Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison in March 2024 after being convicted of fraud and conspiracy charges linked to FTX’s collapse in 2022.

Speculation about a possible presidential pardon grew after Bankman-Fried applied for clemency from Trump in June 2026.

On Friday, the FTX Recovery Trust said it would distribute about $900 million to creditors in the fifth round of repayments. The trust has now paid out about $10 billion since the company filed for bankruptcy.

Tokenized stocks hit record $2.3B

The global market capitalization of tokenized stocks rose to a record $2.3 billion on Wednesday, as more investors sought exposure to blockchain-based equity products.

The Ethereum network boasted the largest market share, at 34%, followed by BNB Chain with 30% and the Solana network with 23%, data aggregator Token Terminal shared in a Wednesday X post.

The largest increase came from Kraken exchange’s xStocks, which accounted for $507 million worth of tokenized stocks and Binance’s bStocks, with $334 million. Ondo Finance remained the largest tokenized stock issuer with $955 million in onchain equities, according to Token Terminal data.

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which is the custodian of $114 trillion in assets, last week launched a trial of tokenized securities in partnership with more than 40 financial firms.

Robinhood Chain also aims to become a leader in tokenized stocks, however its volume to date is largely driven by memecoins.

Is Robinhood Chain’s success bullish or bearish for ETH the asset?

US and UK to align stablecoin rules, but Genius Act rules are TBA

The US Department of the Treasury and HM Treasury in the UK have issued four joint recommendations on digital assets.

The task force recommended that authorities consider a private-sector-led group focused on “testing of cross-border use cases for tokenized assets” and that financial agencies in the US and the Bank of England identify shared approaches on the regulation of tokenized assets. 

The statement said that stablecoins “should be fully backed, on at least a one-to-one basis, by high-quality, liquid assets,” aligning with the US law.

Ironically, a few days later it emerged the US regulatory agencies had all missed Saturday’s rulemaking deadline for the GENIUS stablecoin act. Missing the statutory deadline does not invalidate the GENIUS Act, but will result in issuers having less time to comply before the rules go into effect in January.

Source: ZachXBT (but DYOR)

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $64,620, Ether (ETH) at $1,868 and XRP (XRP) is at $1.09. The total market cap is at $2.21 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Pump.fun (PUMP) which gained 36%, Venice Token (VVV) on 10%, and Litecoin (LTC) which is up 7%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are DeXe (DEXE) after it lost 27%, Lighter (LIT) which was down 17%, and Worldcoin (WRLD) which fell 14%.

Prediction of the Week

Bitcoin gets new $80K August target

Bitcoin (BTC) may hit up to $80,000 by August if it clears nearby resistance, a new prediction says. A macro tide could be the spark to ignite the next move higher.

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said earlier this week that BTC/USD has successfully defended “crucial” support.

“It’s holding the crucial level at $61,000 and flipping important MAs for support, indicating that there’s more momentum on the horizon,” he wrote, referring to moving average trend lines. 

“I’m expecting to see a rally to $68,000 in the next 1-2 weeks, followed by a continuation towards $75,000-80,000 in August.”

Not everyone agreed with the analysis, including nichoxbt who thinks the price is heading back under $60,000.

Source: Nichoxbt

Top FUD of the Week

Consensys unknowingly outsourced developer work to North Korean

Blockchain company Consensys accidentally used a software developer linked to North Korea, who had access to some of its systems for a month.

First reported on Friday by Drop Site, Consensys earlier this year took on a software developer via a “reputable third party service provider” who was later discovered to have ties to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. 

The move caused the Metamask developer to temporarily suspend product releases, but said an investigation has “confirmed there was no misappropriation of assets or data, no malicious code deployed, and no impact to user safety and security.”

Kaspersky identifies malware framework targeting crypto investors

Cybersecurity company Kaspersky said a newly identified malware framework is targeting cryptocurrency investors.

Dubbed “OkoBot,” the malware initiates an infection chain that starts with social engineering tactics such as ClickFix, which tricks users into running malicious commands, or trojanized GitHub apps that deliver a backdoor to infected devices, the cybersecurity company wrote in a Wednesday report.

A separate malware campaign seeks to infiltrate the devices of Web3 developers via fake LinkedIn recruitment opportunities, according to SlowMist.

Attackers contact blockchain devs via LinkedIn, posing as recruiters. They then send fake GitHub repositories to victims, claiming they contain code that needs to be assessed before the interview, the security company said in a Saturday report.

Base’s social bet left it trailing in prediction markets and perps: Pollak

Base creator Jesse Pollak says he is stepping back from leading the Base App after admitting he made a “wrong bet” on social, leaving the chain to fall behind on prediction markets and perpetual futures. 

In a post to X on Wednesday, Pollak said he had bet that creator, content and messaging apps would drive adoption, but instead the market “disintegrated completely.” 

Pollak said he now realized financial applications are the way forward for the network, with a focus on trading, payments and AI agents. 

The Base App will now return to Coinbase, and will be overseen by crypto influencer and trader Jordan Fish, better known on X as “Cobie.”

Top Magazine Stories of the Week

Strategy became a symbol of the dot-com crash: Could history repeat?

MicroStrategy blew up during the dot-com era, before Michael Saylor transformed it into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Did he learn his lesson?

Is Robinhood Chain’s success bullish or bearish for ETH the asset?

Surging volumes on Robinhood Chain could be very good for Ethereum, but only if the “ETH is money” crowd turn out to be right.

Gambling on random Pokémon cards: Onchain gagcha hits record high as crypto sinks

Users spent a record $324 million on onchain gacha in June, even as Bitcoin hit a 21-month low. The thrill of scoring a top Pokemon card from a random pack is becoming big business.