Why Wall Street’s Dark Horse Could Surprise Everyone

ETF filings put XRP back in the spotlight

When financial firms roll out exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for crypto, it often signals that an asset is crossing from niche into the mainstream.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are already trading in the US, attracting billions from institutions and retail investors who want exposure without holding tokens directly.

Now attention is shifting to XRP (XRP), the native digital asset of Ripple’s payments network.

On the surface, XRP looks like an unlikely candidate. It spent years fighting the US Securities and Exchange Commission in court and doesn’t carry the cultural weight of Bitcoin or Ether. Still, major asset managers are filing ETF applications (and analysts are split on whether investors would bite).

Nate Geraci, who heads The ETF Store and closely tracks ETF markets, thinks skeptics are underestimating demand. He compares today’s doubts to the early pushback against Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which faded quickly once billions of dollars started flowing in.

This article explores why, despite its baggage and lower brand power, some funds see XRP as Wall Street’s dark horse — a token that could surprise doubters if ETF approval comes through.

Did you know? In July 2023, a US court ruled that XRP itself is not a security when sold on secondary markets.

XRP ETFs?

The possibility of a spot XRP ETF has moved into the spotlight as regulators sift through a flood of crypto fund applications.

Right now, seven spot XRP ETF filings are under SEC review, with Solana slightly ahead with eight. In total, there are 92 crypto-related proposals.

The list of applicants includes big names. WisdomTree’s application was delayed in August, while firms such as 21Shares and Bitwise have filed multiple amendments set for fall deadlines, raising expectations of a busy decision season this autumn.

Established managers like Grayscale, Franklin and Canary Capital are in the mix, but so are newer entrants experimenting with more complex products, including leveraged and derivative-based XRP exposure.

Some issuers are even looking beyond simple price tracking. Amplify, for example, has proposed a fund that combines XRP exposure with covered call strategies to generate yield.

Together, this wave of filings and product innovation is drawing attention from across Web3. 

Did you know? RippleNet, Ripple’s enterprise payment network that uses XRP for liquidity, is already integrated with over 70 countries and more than 1,000 financial institutions worldwide.

What’s happening in October?

Between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25, 2025, the SEC is set to rule on six major spot XRP ETF applications.

The calendar is packed: 

• Grayscale (Oct. 18)
• 21Shares (Oct. 19) 
• Bitwise (Oct. 20)
• Canary (Oct. 23)
• WisdomTree and CoinShares (Oct. 25).

Adding to the stakes, Ripple’s application for a national bank charter (under review by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) is also expected to be decided in the same October window.

If approved, Ripple would gain the ability to operate as a federally supervised banking institution, opening the door to regulated payments, custody and services well beyond crypto.

Why the dual outcomes matter together

ETF bank charter: Analysts argue that a green light on both fronts could institutionalize XRP as not only investable but also operationally essential, driving heavy inflows, credible liquidity and a major rewrite of its financial narrative.

ETF only or charter only: Even one approval could spark momentum. ETFs would legitimize XRP as an investment product, while a bank charter would strengthen trust in its utility. But on their own, neither would deliver the full impact of combined legitimacy.

Neither approved: A double rejection would deal a sharp blow to sentiment. Optimism would fade, US adoption would stall, and XRP could be pushed back into speculative territory until new regulatory pathways open.

XRP, the “dark horse,” explained

XRP’s case as Wall Street’s dark horse comes down to a belief that demand is being widely underestimated.

Nate Geraci argues that “people are severely underestimating investor demand for spot xrp & sol ETFs,” pointing to the way early doubts about Bitcoin and Ether funds vanished once billions began flowing in.

Market signals back him up. CME XRP futures have already topped $1 billion in open interest (the fastest growth of any crypto derivatives contract), showing real institutional engagement.

Forecasts for ETF inflows add to the case. Canary Capital’s CEO projects as much as $5 billion in initial demand, while JPMorgan analysts estimate nearly $8 billion annually if approval comes through. 

For context, investors have already committed $380 million into XRP-related ETF-like products, proof that capital is ready to move into the asset.

Innovation is playing a role, too. 

Let’s remember that Amplify has filed for an ETF that would generate income through XRP options, offering a yield-driven design rather than simple price tracking.

Canary Capital, for its part, places XRP alongside Bitcoin as one of the rare crypto assets that “resonates with Wall Street pros.”

Did you know? On SBI VC Trade, a leading Japanese crypto exchange, XRP was the second-most traded crypto in April 2025, right behind Bitcoin; Ether trailed behind XRP.

Skepticism and risks

For all the optimism, skepticism continues to shadow XRP’s ETF prospects, especially among the largest institutions.

BlackRock, for example, has explicitly declined to pursue a US spot XRP ETF, citing “limited client interest” and regulatory uncertainty. This reluctance from the multinational investment heavyweight serves as a reminder that not all industry leaders are yet convinced about XRP’s long-term potential.

Analysts are also wary. One strategist warned that launching an XRP ETF now could “mark the beginning of the end,” suggesting that the product might struggle to deliver lasting returns or sustain investor inflows.

Market dynamics fuel those doubts. XRP’s price has been bouncing between $2.75 and $2.88, with over $1.9 billion in liquidations tied to shifting onchain activity.

However, at the same time, institutional wallets have accumulated nearly $928 million worth of XRP. So, there’s an uneasy balance between speculative churn and strategic positioning.

Finally, the regulatory clock is far from settled. While rulings are expected by late 2025, delays or denials could sap momentum, dent confidence and keep inflows muted.

XRP’s fate hinges on October’s rulings and Ripple’s bank charter bid. A win could push it into the mainstream; a loss may cement lasting doubt. Either way, the next chapter will be decisive.