Why bitcoin investors should trade the cycle, not dollar-cost average

The win rate of a cycle-aware approach is lower than buy-and-hold, winning not by being right more often, but by avoiding the months when bitcoin loses 20%, 30%, or 40%. Those months cluster, and stepping aside during them is not timing the market; it is about reading the cyclical structure of the asset.

We have made three public, timestamped market calls since 2022: the October 2022 cycle bottom, the July 2023 projection of a $125,000 target and the October 2025 bear signal, each grounded in the same signal framework. The methodology is not infallible. But it is systematic, auditable and structurally better suited to bitcoin’s cyclical nature than the passive approach most advisors currently deploy.

Bitcoin rewards those who understand its cycle. Advisors who treat it like any other asset are leaving risk-adjusted returns on the table and exposing clients to drawdowns that, in practice, end portfolios rather than weather them.

– Markus Thielen, CEO, 10x Research

Ask an Expert

If blockchain technology succeeds, are investors owning the right things?

For years, investors assumed that if a blockchain ecosystem grew, its native token would naturally appreciate. Increasingly, I’m not convinced that’s always true. Technology can become indispensable while value accrues elsewhere to sequencers, applications, stablecoin issuers or liquidity layers.