Is It the Phones?

Phones and young people and baby making: Online interaction is “lacking in some essential emotional nutrient that human beings evolved to harvest from the physical proximity of other human beings,” writes Noah Smith at his Substack. “Perhaps it’s something cognitive—the richness of context that tells you that no, your friend’s life isn’t perfect just because they posted a cool video of their trip to Europe, and thus you don’t need to feel constantly envious and inadequate and left-out. Or perhaps it’s something physical—the tiny touch of a high-five or a hug, the simple feeling of the proximity of other human bodies.”

“Whatever this emotional nutrient is, our young people are starving for it, while they binge on the cheap sugar-alcohol of emoji reactions and story views,” Smith continues. Meanwhile, “the global fertility decline is a long-standing trend. Every country that escapes poverty, urbanizes, and teaches its people to read is going to transition from a high fertility rate (5-7 children per woman) to a much lower rate. Long before the smartphone burst on the scene, most of Europe and the richer parts of East Asia had fallen below replacement-level fertility.” Now it’s hit the U.S. as well, with a new record low of 1.57 per April’s report. (About one-quarter of the fertility rate drop is due to falling rates of teen pregnancy since about 2007, which is an undeniable victory.)

But “why is fertility falling everywhere across the globe, to such low levels, all at once?” asks Smith. “Whatever the cause is, it can’t be something local and parochial. It can’t be the effect of America’s Great Recession, or Confucian culture, or whatever. It has to be something that has been affecting the entire world at the same time, and that narrows it down to a pretty short list.” This brings us to the new paper that’s been making the rounds: “Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly,” which has been robustly critiqued (as well as, more broadly, the theory that phones are massively responsible for falling fertility).

However, “the old fertility drop was due to parents having fewer children, while the recent drop is due to fewer people becoming parents at all”—a critical distinction. Less marriage, less coupling. Also, possibly, the expectation of love as a precursor to marriage:

You’re going to read a thousand takes on why there are less kids being born. But you won’t hear the obvious one. There are less couples, less marriages.

The threshold for coupling up is love. Women would rather be single than not be in love. But love is rare. Always has been pic.twitter.com/s9KM99pXg9

— LindyMan (@PaulSkallas) May 11, 2026

Smith and others point to the rise of sexlessness and social isolation—time spent alone—coinciding with the rise of smartphones as a major contributor:

Smartphones appear to have accelerated the global fertility crisis — by making social isolation and singledom more comfortable and entertaining.

Chatbots could nudge humanity even further in this direction. Today, digital technology doesn’t just provide loners with perpetual… pic.twitter.com/eMXSZg8kt1

— Eric Levitz (@EricLevitz) June 8, 2026

It’s fascinating that these anti-social trends—part of “the anti-social century,” as Derek Thompson put it at The Atlantic—have happened basically everywhere, all at once; that there appears to be no obvious corrective; and that people can’t even necessarily agree on what type of impact the phones (specifically: smartphones that can access social media) have had. Of course, the pandemic almost certainly functioned as an accelerant to preexisting social-withdrawal trends, and government-mandated lockdowns should be partially blamed. But there’s something larger happening here, where synthetic socialization delivering cheaper, easier-to-come-by dopamine hits seems to satiate some part of our social longing, but with plenty of unintended consequences along the way.

I’m persuaded by the Smith argument, for what it’s worth. But Reason‘s Elizabeth Nolan Brown pushed back on all of this, which is also worth your time. I’m just hoping we get a Knicks-related birth rate spike nine months from now, which brings me to…

Scenes from New York: WE LOVE A COMEBACK!!! MIRACLE AT MADISON SQUARE GARDEN! After being down 29 points in the second half, the Knicks managed to pull through. In the last few seconds, Jalen Brunson went for a game-winning 3-point shot that bounced off the rim and needed just a little boost from OG Anunoby to help it in. It was extraordinary. My whole neighborhood was erupting with cheers. I am shocked the noise level of my own little watch party didn’t wake up my 3-year-old (who spent much of yesterday decorating cupcakes in Knicks colors).

The only good thing Mayor Zohran Mamdami has ever done:

When James Dolan cancels the watch party outside MSG, we bring the watch party to you.

Thanks to the @NBA, Knicks Game 4 is now playing on dozens of @LinkNYC screens across our city.

LGK. pic.twitter.com/gRcYjobzSV

— Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@NYCMayor) June 11, 2026

Incredible scenes all around the city:

JFK TERMINAL 8 TONIGHT WHEN THE KNICKS TOOK THE LEAD pic.twitter.com/YvQujrsplV

— Renny Gong (@rennyxgong) June 11, 2026

yes!!! i risked the no fly list screaming pic.twitter.com/XuwShzUfiU

— kyle (@kyle4prezident) June 11, 2026

Someone from their second floor apartment projects the Knicks game against the 4th Avenue-9th Street station pic.twitter.com/oUJQ34XnPM

— Steven Vago (@Vagoish) June 11, 2026

NY Post backpage pic.twitter.com/vm1D5eUmsY

— Stefan Bondy (@SbondyNBA) June 11, 2026

LOOKIN’ AT YOU, WEMBY:

visiting the shaolin monks then losing the wu tang game in historical fashion is crazy storytelling

— alex (@steven_lebron) June 11, 2026

I LOVE NEW YORK SO MUCH!!!

QUICK HITS

• “We’re going to be attacking them, attacking them very hard,” President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House yesterday, referring to Iran. “We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit them hard again today.” Trump also threatened to seize Kharg Island, “which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports,” per CNN. Iran’s military is now targeting U.S. bases for the second day in a row.
• “The Food and Drug Administration approved a new sunscreen ingredient this week for U.S. markets,” writes the editorial board of The Washington Post, referring to bemotrizinol, which was approved for use in Europe 27 years ago. “That shouldn’t be remarkable. Yet this is the first time the agency has done so since 1999…The reason for this disconnect is a 1938 law that classified sunscreen products as drugs to be regulated by the FDA. That has required time-consuming animal testing and clinical trials to prove that they every new variety is safe to be sold over the counter.”
• “Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has introduced legislation that would ban social media for youth under 16 unless companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. and X Corp. meet a set of safety standards,” reports Bloomberg.
• Worth your time: “How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi” over at The Atlantic.
• Agreed:

“Remote work is the biggest innovation for ambitious women with children since the dishwasher.”

Citing @FamStudies research: Mothers of young children who worked full-time from home spent 2.4 additional hours with their children

Excellent @katebachwsj @WSJFreeEx pic.twitter.com/5jv3sl4a9v

— Carter Skeel (@CarterSkeel) June 10, 2026