May Breakdown and What’s Next

In today’s newsletter, Joshua de Vos, from CoinDesk Research, analyzes May’s crypto outflows to explain what current market signals mean.

Then, in “Ask an Expert,” Bryan Courchesne from DAiM addresses how investors can navigate the current market environment.

Crypto ETFs: May Breakdown and What’s Next

May ended two consecutive months of net inflows, with global crypto ETP flows swinging back to heavy redemptions. According to TrackInsight data, global digital-asset investment products recorded $2.39 billion in net outflows, against $1.79 billion of net inflows in April, as total assets under management fell to $141.1 billion from $158.7 billion a month earlier. U.S.-listed vehicles accounted for almost the entire redemption, while flows outside the U.S., which had already cooled in April, turned modestly negative.

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which captures a diversified cross-section of the top 20 digital assets, fell 1.11% in May after gaining 5.45% in April. The more concentrated CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5) declined 3.73% and bitcoin itself fell 3.56%, a sharp reversal from April, when bitcoin (up 11.87%) and the CD5 (up 9.91%) led a broad rally. The return hierarchy also inverted: large caps led in April, whereas in May the broad index outperformed, indicating that large-cap assets bore the brunt of the decline while diversified exposure offered relative shelter.

According to data from TrackInsight, outflows were concentrated in bitcoin — and ether-linked instruments globally, while parts of the altcoin market, led by XRP, Hyperliquid and Solana, drew net inflows, a divergence that widened over the month.

Largest ETF Gainers, Globally (by May Net Flows)

• NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI): +$141.8 million; $1.24 billion AUM
• Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL): +$79.3 million; $672.2 million AUM
• Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT): +$73.9 million; $260.1 million AUM
• Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP): +$62.0 million; $71.1 million AUM
• iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB): +$56.1 million; $584.3 million AUM
• 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP): +$49.7 million; $61.6 million AUM
• NEOS Boosted Bitcoin High Income ETF (XBCI): +$42.8 million; $71.8 million AUM
• Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ): +$38.7 ,million; $273.8 million AUM
• iShares Bitcoin ETP (IB1T): +$33.1 million; $1.06 billion AUM

U.S.-listed products continued to dominate the global crypto ETF market in May. Despite net outflows of $2.37 billion, American-domiciled ETFs closed the month with $119.2 billion in AUM, retaining roughly 84.5% of the $141.1 billion global market, broadly in line with April’s 85.1%.

May’s headline outflow ended two months of inflows and was overwhelmingly a U.S., large-cap reversal. The gainers list, by contrast, was dominated by income, staking and newly launched products. With the CoinDesk 20 down just 1.11% against a 3.73% fall in the large-cap CD5, diversified and altcoin exposures showed a relative resilience that the flow data corroborated. That resilience has since been overwhelmed: by early June, Bitcoin had fallen to around $62,000, and the major indices were down a further 15% or more, leaving no sign that May’s outflows marked a bottom and pointing to intensifying pressure into June.

Read more: May’s global ETP recap and May’s U.S.-focused ETF recap.

– Joshua de Vos, research team lead, CoinDesk

Ask an Expert

Q: Bitcoin’s RSI recently dropped into the low 40s. Why is that significant?

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into the low 40s on key timeframes, which is a relatively rare occurrence. Similar readings were seen in February 2020 and during the March 2020 COVID crash. In both cases, those oversold conditions preceded powerful recoveries and substantial long-term gains. While no indicator guarantees future performance, historically these periods have often represented attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.

Q: Does this signal present an opportunity today?

Potentially, yes. For investors who remain focused on bitcoin and have a long-term time horizon, periods of market pessimism have historically offered some of the best entry points. The challenge is that buying often feels hardest when sentiment is negative, which is exactly why many investors miss these opportunities.

Q: What advice would you give investors who struggle to evaluate crypto projects?

If you cannot confidently assess factors such as real-world usage, security, tokenomics, decentralization and adoption metrics, simplifying your approach may be the best option. Bitcoin remains the most established digital asset, with the strongest network effects, the clearest store-of-value thesis, institutional support through ETFs and a proven ability to survive multiple market cycles.

Q: How can investors separate credible advice from noise?

A: Look for analysts and advisors with verifiable experience, a track record of being right more often than not, and a history of evidence-based commentary. Be skeptical of anonymous influencers, paid promoters and personalities whose primary business model appears to be generating engagement. In many cases, the difference between successful investing and costly mistakes comes down to ignoring the attention machine.

Q: What’s the key takeaway from today’s market environment?

This RSI setup could prove to be another important moment in bitcoin’s history. While no outcome is guaranteed, bitcoin has repeatedly rewarded patience, discipline and long-term conviction. Investors focused on fundamentals may view current conditions as an opportunity, while those still waiting for unrealistic altcoin narratives to play out risk missing another bitcoin-led recovery.

– Bryan Courchesne, founder, DAiM

Keep Reading

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