Elizabeth Warren Demands Answers on CFTC’s Crypto and Prediction Market Oversight

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) wants to know why the agency policing prediction markets seems to keep siding with companies linked to President Donald Trump and his family.

In a letter sent Monday to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig, Warren questioned whether the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission can effectively regulate prediction markets and cryptocurrencies “amidst unprecedented presidential corruption.”

She pointed to a recent New York Times report describing how the watchdog had been “steamrolled” by the industries it oversees.

“As prediction markets balloon in size, and Congress advances legislation that threatens to loosen the guardrails on cryptocurrency, the CFTC’s reported capture by industry poses severe risks to American families and our economy,” Warren wrote.

Top prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket hold roughly $60 billion in market value as of early 2026, and the industry could reach $1 trillion in trading volume by 2030, per a Bernstein estimate cited by CNBC.

Yet Warren says the agency tasked with watching them has been hollowed out with its workforce cut by about 25%, with enforcement actions falling from 58 in fiscal year 2024 to just 11 in the year since Trump took office.

Warren tied those cuts directly to the administration’s financial entanglements.

According to the reporting she cited, the CFTC approved a Polymarket request after an investment by Donald Trump Jr.’s investment firm, fast-tracked a Gemini offshoot whose founders backed Trump-affiliated American Bitcoin, and sidelined staff who questioned Crypto.com, a business partner of Trump Media & Technology.

Warren noted that former commissioner Brian Quintenz, initially tapped to lead the agency before his nomination was revoked, released text messages in which Tyler Winklevoss insisted he treat Gemini’s complaint as the highest priority and offered to “raise this issue with the president himself.”

Quintenz refused, his nomination was withdrawn, and Selig was nominated instead.

She criticized Selig for asking a judge to vacate a $5 million penalty against Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, who Warren noted each donated $1 million in Bitcoin to Trump’s reelection campaign.

“Taken together, these are concerning signs of a CFTC beholden to political pressures and interests of the wealthy insiders, unbound by the rule of law and failing to protect investors and market integrity,” Warren wrote.

Two-tier system

“The biggest issue here isn’t whether CFTC is pro-crypto or anti-crypto. It’s the fact that its impartiality is being called into question, and a regulatory agency that isn’t impartial can’t be trusted to make decisions for the greater good of everyone,” Nic Puckrin, macro analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, told Decrypt.

He pointed to the DOJ prosecuting a Google engineer and a U.S. soldier for insider trading on prediction markets while leaving untouched the hundreds of millions made by oil traders.

“It creates the impression of a two-tier justice system, and makes people lose faith in its ability to effectively create justice for all,” he said.

“Regulating digital asset companies with a team that thinks within the TradFi frameworks will produce bad rules regardless of how many people are in the building,” Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told Decrypt.

“If the CFTC is going to take on expanded authority under the Clarity Act, it needs people who actually understand blockchain technology, not just the traditional derivatives playbook,” he said.

The concern carries added weight because Congress is advancing the Clarity Act, which would shift oversight of most of the crypto market to the CFTC, an expansion Warren said the agency is ill-equipped to handle even before its workforce was thinned.

Warren has asked Selig to respond by June 18, including a complete record of staff separations since January 2025, the administrative record behind no-action letters issued to Polymarket and Gemini, and all communications between prediction market firms and the agency tied to the Clarity Act.

The inquiry follows similar Warren-led letters last month challenging the legality of crypto bank charter approvals and a recent push alongside Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to keep crypto out of 401(k) plans.