Standard Chartered’s three ‘Ifs’ that stand between bitcoin and a market low: Crypto Daily

To say bitcoin BTC$63,729.63 bears are having a great time would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency has shed 14% in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the crash in February. Broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating, and most analysts say the situation could deteriorate further if BTC breaks below the critical $60,000 threshold.

Amid the gloom, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, sees a different picture.

This week’s crypto pain was real, Kendrick said, but he thinks “the low is almost in.” His case rests on three pillars:

Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 operation: When Strategy last sold BTC, in December 2022, it bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the firm to do the same after having sold 32 BTC last week. It could potentially buy as much as 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that, if confirmed next Monday, he’d treat it as a tentative signal that the low is in.

ETF holdings are sturdier than feared: The 11 spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net outflow of $5 billion over the past three weeks. Yet, if we zoom out, the holdings have barely moved. The cumulative net inflow since inception in early 2024 is back to $54.2 billion, right where it was earlier this year. “They went up from 682k and then back down to now 674k (broadly unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” he said.

Liquidations are mostly done: bitcoin futures bets worth $1.5 billion have been liquidated by exchanges. That figure is similar to January’s, and with BTC already badly underperforming equities this year, the pool of leveraged longs left to liquidate is smaller than before, he argued.

The takeaway? There are too many “Ifs” involved to predict an exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, accumulating here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.

“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he said. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

The weekly bitcoin price chart is suggesting the same as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: The bear market is probably in its final stages and the bottom may be near.

The cryptocurrency is trading close to its 200-week simple moving average. That’s noteworthy because previous bear markets ended around the same average, as the green arrows on the chart show.

So, if past is a guide, then a bottom may happen soon. Note, however, that past patterns are no guarantee of future performance.